Over the water mid-range/putter shot. Big tree is straight ahead 30' behind the basket that can put you back in it. Straight shot, not a good idea.

long: slight left turn. If you are certain that you can throw 300'. This should be a fun, risky challenge. Throw whatever you're comfortable with. If you can't throw that far, throw a 100' shot and play your second shot by the short tee and go for the par. Better safe than sorry.