Sorry if this has been covered. tl;dr
I threw a shot to a blind peninsula green. Everyone was looking for it near/around the waters' edge. It was not found. My group ruled it a lost disc. I made a case that it was most likely in the water, so I should get my spot near the basket.
Is there precedence here? Or do I have to convince my group that it's OB, not lost?
The group gets to make a ruling as always. If they believe it was near/around the water's edge (assumung the water is the OB boundary -- always bad TD'ing), then they can determine whether "not finding it" means "it's OB" or not. The troubling issue there, in my mind, is "the (OB) water's edge." But yes as JC says, you have to convince them that there is reasonable evidence that it was headed toward the OB water.
.Except that this interpretation fails to account for the Rules School on marking the lie article cited upthread, which—JC17393's sarcasm notwithstanding—is precedential, since Rules School articles are (or, at least until recently, were) written in consultation with the RC and are (were) reviewed by the RC prior to publication, and therefore must be accounted for until such time as the RC explicitly disavows the ruling set forth in the article.
a) what JC said
b) no it doesn't, I think you're incorrect there. It perfectly accounts for the specific situation mentioned. Absent compelling evidence to the contrary (e.g., no one definitively saw how that disc got to wherever it ended up), then the default is where it lies. Period. QA14 and QA34 explicitly stated that. An interpretation never supersedes the actual rule.