Can we safely play a round of disc golf?

[brutalbrutus]

Its actually rather fortunate this doesn't happen more often. All those stupid wet markets around the world should probably be producing these things a lot more often...

Eventually one will pop up that has the asymptomatic spread rate of this one and a much higher mortality rate... and then the world is phuckered

 

[Binky Yutz]

Can we safely play a round of disc golf?

Yes, as long as you are not stupid....oh wait....I just remembered....HUMANS are stupid.....

myself included (the secret is not to be stupid 24/7)

 

[ru4por]

Best case scenario over the next few weeks we develop treatments that can reduce severity and keep hospitals somewhat free, antibody testing that can determine if someone has had it and should be immune, freeing them to get back in public, and a flu/cold-like recession with warm temps gives us some breathing room.

Worst case, we fight spikes of this every time social distancing is lifted until we have a widespread vaccine next year.

See, here is the rub. Experts seem fairly convinced that getting it will only provide for very temporary immunity and also seem convinced, mutation of the virus is expected.

There also does not seem to be much confidence that the weather is going to impact the spread. If so, while the summer break would be beneficial, it would only be a stay of the spread until the winter months that follow.

I will continue to hope for your best case though.

 

[R-Ogre]

See, here is the rub. Experts seem fairly convinced that getting it will only provide for very temporary immunity and also seem convinced, mutation of the virus is expected.

There also does not seem to be much confidence that the weather is going to impact the spread. If so, while the summer break would be beneficial, it would only be a stay of the spread until the winter months that follow.

I will continue to hope for your best case though.

I didn't say I thought it was likely, just that it's the best case.

 

[ru4por]

Just to drift the thread, in true DGCR fashion.

One of the things I have learned is that half of the school age children in Michigan are getting some kind of government supported food program. There are very big efforts here to continue to ensure that those kids have food.

WTF....half of the people in the state that I live in, that are having children, have no way to feed them? Christ, that is startling.

 

[thrembo]

Just to drift the thread, in true DGCR fashion.

One of the things I have learned is that half of the school age children in Michigan are getting some kind of government supported food program. There are very big efforts here to continue to ensure that those kids have food.

WTF....half of the people in the state that I live in, that are having children, have no way to feed them? Christ, that is startling.

So sad and frustrating. Separation of the classes has just about been achieved.

 

[Dcinmd]

I didn't say I thought it was likely, just that it's the best case.

Given how prepared we have been to date I am not counting on any base case scenario.

Also it most likely we be some where between 100,000 to 125,000 cases if not more by next weekend.

Or 2,500 dead. And then 3 days after that it will double and then double till the peak.

 

[R-Ogre]

See, here is the rub. Experts seem fairly convinced that getting it will only provide for very temporary immunity and also seem convinced, mutation of the virus is expected.

There also does not seem to be much confidence that the weather is going to impact the spread. If so, while the summer break would be beneficial, it would only be a stay of the spread until the winter months that follow.

I will continue to hope for your best case though.

Re: immunity. There's a theory that even with fading immunity and mutations, having had the virus may make subsequent reinfections minor. And of course if people who have had it get out in society and keep getting exposed I would imagine that will tend to keep their immunity intact as well. Also, other viruses have been shown to have their evolution favor milder strains, and if we keep isolating people who get really sick (or they die) the predominant version of the virus will tend toward a milder strain (assuming any mutations actually effect the severity/transmissibility of the virus).

There are a couple papers out now theorizing that covid spreads easiest in a certain temperature band, but of course at this stage it's hard to separate correlation from causation.

Of course this is all sort of pissing in the wind since none of us are virologists or epidemiologists but it passes time in social distancing.

 

[armiller]

I plan to play disc golf this weekend and plan to do it safely.

I will play alone and have no plans to disinfect my putters or discs despite planning to putt into baskets. The courses around here aren't particularly busy, so maybe that's one reason I'm less concerned. But is anyone really concerned about picking up the virus after putting into a basket? Yes, I will wash my hands before and after playing and will try to remember not to touch my face.

If I see you on the course, I will probably stay 6 feet away from you. But I would have done that anyway.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

Just to drift the thread, in true DGCR fashion.

One of the things I have learned is that half of the school age children in Michigan are getting some kind of government supported food program. There are very big efforts here to continue to ensure that those kids have food.

WTF....half of the people in the state that I live in, that are having children, have no way to feed them? Christ, that is startling.

That's sadly amazing when you consider how many folks work for one of the Big 3, or suppliers... or in logistics / supply chain associated with the auto industry...not just near Detroit, but other parts of the state, too.

You may not get rich working those jobs, but if you got one, feeding your kids ain't an issue.

I always thought MI was decent state to achieve a middleclass income in. :\

 

[broomerang]

I do a lot of travel to MI for work and I gotta say it's really sad to see the extreme disparity present in that state between the haves and have nots.

The Big 3 are the reason it's so bad too, especially GM from what I've heard.

 

[Monocacy]

Also, other viruses have been shown to have their evolution favor milder strains, and if we keep isolating people who get really sick (or they die) the predominant version of the virus will tend toward a milder strain (assuming any mutations actually effect the severity/transmissibility of the virus).

Smallpox killed 30% of its victims, and evidence of smallpox has been found in Egyptian mummies dating to the 3rd century BCE. So unfortunately not all viruses evolve toward milder strains.

Or maybe ancient Egyptian smallpox was even worse?

 

[Cgkdisc]

A pathogen can only survive if it's able to infect more hosts either directly before its current host dies and/or by surviving outside a host on a surface, in the water or in the air long enough to infect new hosts with no immunity. In the COVID case, it would appear weaker and weaker strains are more likely to be transmitted as it spreads across the world if it doesn't kill its host before transmission. Another benefit of flattening the curve.

 

[peabody]

Herd immunity will only work if A: enough people are exposed to the virus or B: enough people are immunized against the virus.
As a kid I remember parents getting their kids together to catch the measles.
Us boomers are lucky so many are still alive.

 

[Steve West]

Herd immunity will only work if A: enough people are exposed to the virus or B: enough people are immunized against the virus.
As a kid I remember parents getting their kids together to catch the measles.
Us boomers are lucky so many are still alive.

I think you are remembering chicken pox. Measles can kill.

 

[hiflyer]

Can BBq kill coronavirus?

 

[peabody]

I think you are remembering chicken pox. Measles can kill.

Lol yep it was chicken pox!

 

[peabody]

Can BBq kill coronavirus?

Yes but only if the beer served with it isn't
Carona.

 

[BrotherDave]

Is there a citation for this? Because I have a SWEET ultraviolet flashlight for glow, and if that is satisfactory disinfectant that'll save me a lot of soap/water/maybe hand dryness.

I heard Dustin Keegan is staunchly opposed to use of UV lights, for what it's worth

I meant sunlight which is partly composed of UV light.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/coronavirus-expert-says-the-virus-will-burn-itself-out-in-about-6-months/679415

"Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature, and 3. Humidity," Nicholls said in response to a question about when he thinks confirmed cases will peak.

"Sunlight will cut the virus' ability to grow in half so the half-life will be 2.5 minutes and in the dark it's about 13 to 20 [minutes]," Nicholls said. "Sunlight is really good at killing viruses."

Disc golf is probably one of the most suitable activities one can do during this.

 

[BrotherDave]

Herd immunity and vaccines might never happen. The immunity to this doesn't seem to last very long. This will probably become a seasonal scourge for a number of years until it runs out of good vectors. This is basically just Mother Nature giving us a reality check. Yes, we should take considerable measures to prevent the spread to the elderly and health compromised but the hard truth is that a considerable number of these people are living on artificially borrowed time as it is. It is impractical to burden the vast multitudes because a fraction of people wouldn't take care of themselves via poor diet or smoking.