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This looks like an open hole subject to varying wind speed and direction. So, you want to design for the shortest distance a typical white level player could throw into the wind if your goal is for most white and blue level players to be able to cross it following a good drive, especially if there's no way to safely play around it. The PDGA has guidelines for different skill levels pertaining to water crossings and doglegs to give you an idea of those distance ranges. I know this doesn't directly answer where to set your tee so players can reach the desired landing for their drive but it does provide an idea how far that should be from the front edge of the pond.