Who will be the next first time winner?

[txmxer]

My money's on Niklas being the next first-time winner. He seems like he has the mental fortitude and all-around game to make it happen.

He's solid for sure and seems consistent.

It may be a lot harder to find that first win going forward. So many talented players popping off and a core of 1040+ players that are always in the mix.

 

[glassila]

Cole's been knocking at the door. He's been on a bunch of feature cards this year so far. I can see him grabbing a win before those other two and I wouldn't be surprised. Big Jerm has talked him up in the past. We shall see...

I agree that Cole is the most likely of the 3 to win, but you never know - I wouldn't have given Emerson Keith much of a chance.

 

[foxdawg10]

Top 10 yes, podium probably not. It's much more likely in FPO imo.

On the women's side I would have called Caroline Henderson an unknown a few months ago and she was top 10 at Vegas. Anniken Steen is certainly an unknown here in the US and she was 5th at Waco.

On the men's side Connor Rock, Parker Welck, Mason Marchbanks and Luke Taylor have all finished in the top 20 at Elite events this year. I knew who Taylor was before but not the others.

Gavin Babcock was unknown prior to finishing 5th at Champion's Cup last year.

I don't think it is about a local player having a good weekend- more about young players out on tour for the first time having a good weekend. There are so many young guys with so much talent that it is likely to occur eventually.

This is a possibility...

 

[glassila]

The announcers were saying his 1010 rating is one of the lowest to win a pro tier event.
He seems like a nice "kid". :clap:

 

[Mist Mando]

In my opinion, the best MPO candidates are Corey Ellis, Anthony Barela, Cole Redalen and Aaron Gossage. (I'm going with Ellis)

5-point swings do help.

 

[glassila]

5-point swings do help.

Barela offered Ellis a gift and Ellis accepted.

 

[Mist Mando]

Spoiler

Yes! Matt Orum at 2023 MVP Open, from the chase card. Massively deserved.

Before that, Cole Redalen at Ledgestone.

 

[Mist Mando]

This season we have first

Spoiler

Barela

and then

Spoiler

Anttila (yay)

, leaving

Spoiler

Gossage and Proctor

among the usual suspects... although it's entirely possible some up-and-comer like

Spoiler

Anderson

will beat them to it. Simon's comment about looking at the roster of players and despairing of having to beat each and every one of them feels pretty real right now.

 

[@CD-]

The runner-ups at Majors and DGPT events are always good bets as well. I would certainly give Silver event winners a look to win at the DGPT Elite or Major event level.
Since DMC 2022 here is the list (L->R is my prediction of most likely to least if healthy) -
FPO: Blomroos, Hansen, Velediaz, Ananda, Oliva, J. Allen
MPO: Barela, Aderhold, Orum, Anttila, Freeman, Ellis, Gossage, Burridge

Red are hot round golfers - high birdie rate + low OB rate gets them in contention
Orange are consistent golfers - solid rounds, regular top 10s
Blue are weather & course dependent

Some golfers aren't on DGPT full time (Europeans, Americans only playing subset of US events for various reasons) so that limits some chances.

Crossed off the list above -
Ellis @ Major EO '23
Barela @ DGPT Chess.com '24
Orum @ DGPT MVP Open '23
Anttila @ DGPT Open at Austin '24

Not listed winner mentions -
Handley @ Throw Pink '23 - pretty safe to count this as an 'Elite' win IMO
Scoggins @ DGPT DGLO '23
Mertsch @ DGPT Jonesboro '23
Keith @ DGPT OTB Open '23
Welck @ DGPT DDO '23
Redalen @ DGPT Ledgestone '23

Honorable tough win mentions (since last post ) -
J. Allen @ DGPT Silver event '23 Beaver State
Presnell @ DGPT Silver event '23 Mid America Open

FPO remains: Blomroos, Hansen, Velediaz, Ananda, Oliva, J. Allen
Adds -
Runner Up DGPT/Majors: Heidi Laine
Silver Event winners: Ali Smith and Chantel Budinsky
European notable/multiple win(s): Silva Saarinen

MPO drops to: Aderhold, Freeman, Gossage, Burridge
Adds -
Runner Up DGPT/Majors: Ben Callaway, James Proctor
Silver Event winners: Evan Scott, Andrew Presnell, Ezra Robinson
European notable/multiple win(s): Mauri Villman, Dennis Augustsson

 

[Mist Mando]

Honorable tough win mentions could include Ananda beating Tattar at Innova Open. (edit: already mentioned as Texas States and does not carry over, fame is fleeting etc.)

 

[glassila]

Crossed off the list above -
Ellis @ Major EO '23
Barela @ DGPT Chess.com '24
Orum @ DGPT MVP Open '23
Anttila @ DGPT Open at Austin '24

Not listed winner mentions -
Handley @ Throw Pink '23 - pretty safe to count this as an 'Elite' win IMO
Scoggins @ DGPT DGLO '23
Mertsch @ DGPT Jonesboro '23
Keith @ DGPT OTB Open '23
Welck @ DGPT DDO '23
Redalen @ DGPT Ledgestone '23

Honorable tough win mentions (since last post ) -
J. Allen @ DGPT Silver event '23 Beaver State
Presnell @ DGPT Silver event '23 Mid America Open

FPO remains: Blomroos, Hansen, Velediaz, Ananda, Oliva, J. Allen
Adds -
Runner Up DGPT/Majors: Heidi Laine
Silver Event winners: Ali Smith and Chantel Budinsky
European notable/multiple win(s): Silva Saarinen

MPO drops to: Aderhold, Freeman, Gossage, Burridge
Adds -
Runner Up DGPT/Majors: Ben Callaway, James Proctor
Silver Event winners: Evan Scott, Andrew Presnell, Ezra Robinson
European notable/multiple win(s): Mauri Villman, Dennis Augustsson

Great summary of the situation @CD!
That took a lot of work.

 

[glassila]

It's looking like there could be a "first time winner" for the Champions Cub. (1st time Major winner too boot!)
Casey White, Joe Anderson, Ezra Robinson are leading the field.
2 rounds to go, but I'd love to see one of these guys break through!

 

[@CD-]

Crossed off the list above -
Ellis @ Major EO '23
Barela @ DGPT Chess.com '24
Orum @ DGPT MVP Open '23
Anttila @ DGPT Open at Austin '24

Not listed winner mentions -
Handley @ Throw Pink '23 - pretty safe to count this as an 'Elite' win IMO
Scoggins @ DGPT DGLO '23
Mertsch @ DGPT Jonesboro '23
Keith @ DGPT OTB Open '23
Welck @ DGPT DDO '23
Redalen @ DGPT Ledgestone '23

Honorable tough win mentions (since last post ) -
J. Allen @ DGPT Silver event '23 Beaver State
Presnell @ DGPT Silver event '23 Mid America Open

FPO remains: Blomroos, Hansen, Velediaz, Ananda, Oliva, J. Allen
Adds -
Runner Up DGPT/Majors: Heidi Laine
Silver Event winners: Ali Smith and Chantel Budinsky
European notable/multiple win(s): Silva Saarinen

MPO drops to: Aderhold, Freeman, Gossage, Burridge
Adds -
Runner Up DGPT/Majors: Ben Callaway, James Proctor
Silver Event winners: Evan Scott, Andrew Presnell, Ezra Robinson
European notable/multiple win(s): Mauri Villman, Dennis Augustsson

ES/M Event (since Open at Austin): Winner/Runner Up FPO - W/RU MPO
TX States: Anniken Steen/Tattar - Barela/Buhr
Jonesboro: Tattar/Handley - Barela/Heimburg, Callaway, and Aderhold
Music City: Tattar/Handley - Lizotte/McBeth
Champions Cup (M): Salonen/Scoggins and Blomroos - Andrew Presnell/Anttila
DDO: M. Gannon/King - Heimburg/Buhr
Copenhagen: Salonen/Kaidi Allsalu - Jesse Nieminen/Eetu Tuominen and Anttila
OTB Open: Ella Hansen/Mertsch - Heimburg/Gavin Rathbun
Portland Open: Pierce/Handley - Buhr/Redalen
BSF: Holyn Handley/Scoggins - Buhr/E. Robinson and Wysocki

Spoiler: Turku results

Turku: Silva Saarinen/Salonen - Anttila/Proctor

DGPT Euro Silver Events winners not previously listed:
Jakub Semerád
Clay Edwards
Teemu Lampainen
Anneli Tõugjas-Männiste

---

Winners removed: Presnell, Hansen, Handley (technically Throw Pink isn't ES/M)

Spoiler: Turku results

, and Saarinen

Unlisted winners: Steen and Nieminen

Remaining predictions for next first time winner:
Color code: Likely - Situational - Long Shot

Spoiler: Turku results

FPO: Blomroos, Velediaz, Ananda, Oliva, J. Allen, Smith, Budinsky, Laine, Allsalu, Tõugjas-Männiste
MPO: Aderhold, Freeman, Gossage, Burridge, Callaway, Proctor, E. Scott, E. Robinson, Villman, Augustsson, Tuominen, Rathbun, Humphries, Semerád, Edwards, Lampainen

Additions to above list for ES RU - Allsalu, Tuominen, Rathbun, and Luke Humphries (who I missed from WACO)
Additions for DGPT Euro Silver winners: Semerád, Edwards, Lampainen, Tõugjas-Männiste

Potential for situations to play out with less NA golfers stateside in MPO or vice versa w/ less EU FPO stateside over the coming months. Most of the time new winners are coming from situations where they displayed consistency in the shorter 3 round events and majority of the top rated players having off rounds.

Good amount of the FPO Likely winners have accomplished wins in the the past year (mostly when Tattar wasn't there) w/ Blomroos and Laine being the only RU that haven't managed it so far. Harder to see anyone really breaking through against a full FPO field containing all the prior winners going forward.

Ezra Robinson and James Proctor probably my top 2 picks to get a DGPT ES win. Ezra Robinson has a more recent RU than the others. Proctor w/ a higher chance than most due to playing the remaining 3 DGPT Euro events as near the highest rated player each event.

I will start tracking players that rise above the 1030 MPO rating and 955 FPO at the time I make these posts in the future. That group would serve to replace the ET/EPT multi time winners and some of the DGPT NA Silver event winners from last year (no thanks for DGPT Q-Series tracking). Currently that would be players like Joseph Anderson, Gavin Babcock, Lauri Lehtinen, Lykke Lorentzen, and Lisa Fajkus. Most of the ES/M winners are coming from above those ratings so dropping the long shots that haven't shown much repeat performance since their initial RU or Silver win and fall below those rating thresholds after a full year makes sense for predictive purposes IMO.

 

[Mist Mando]

Nieminen's and Proctor's wins in Europe are technically Pro Tour, aren't they?