Random thought:
Rather than looking for super props with a lot of rated rounds, why not look for players who consistently throw similar ratings?
It's reasonable that a player who has a lot of rated rounds is probably rated very close to their average performance over the time period when those rounds were recorded. However, having an accurate average for that player doesn't help to predict how good their next round is if there's a large standard deviation in the set of their round ratings. For an inconsistent player, a single round score could be much worse or much better than their "average" skill level.
On the other hand, a player with very consistent ratings will have a small standard deviation in the set of their round ratings. For such a player you could be more confident that their next round should be within a smaller range of ratings.
Just spit-balling here, but each propagator could be weighted in inverse proportion to the standard deviation of their round ratings. That would help to filter out some "loose cannons" who have a lot of rated rounds, but aren't consistent from one round to the next.
Rather than looking for super props with a lot of rated rounds, why not look for players who consistently throw similar ratings?
It's reasonable that a player who has a lot of rated rounds is probably rated very close to their average performance over the time period when those rounds were recorded. However, having an accurate average for that player doesn't help to predict how good their next round is if there's a large standard deviation in the set of their round ratings. For an inconsistent player, a single round score could be much worse or much better than their "average" skill level.
On the other hand, a player with very consistent ratings will have a small standard deviation in the set of their round ratings. For such a player you could be more confident that their next round should be within a smaller range of ratings.
Just spit-balling here, but each propagator could be weighted in inverse proportion to the standard deviation of their round ratings. That would help to filter out some "loose cannons" who have a lot of rated rounds, but aren't consistent from one round to the next.