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I figured it would be considered lost, but thought I'd see what people thought.
I don't agree that this situation is the same as a cedar tree or leaf pile, etc. where you know where the disc is, but can't find it. Those are classic lost disc situations that we've all dealt with.
A low area that fills with water after a heavy rain just doesn't seem like a Lost Disc situation.
If you allow it (compelling evidence) for casual water, others would then take this concept and extended it to other situations: cedar trees, tall grass, deep leaves, etc. Which pretty much starts negating the lost disc rule. It is a very different thing to know a disc went out of bounds and not find the disc (as there are many cases where the OB area cannot be entered to search for or retrieve the disc), than say we think it is somewhere over here but can't find it.
Furthermore, it is impossible to treat as casual relief. Since there is no location for the disc, there is no LOP to use to determine the lie.
This is why the QA which previously allowed it was removed as it is not supported by the rules.