Anyone who has played the game seriously for more than a few months has probably heard it: "Disc golf is...the fastest-growing sport in the world/exploding in popularity/experiencing record growth!" We hear it from not only the PDGA, but from locals who've been playing for years, as well as our regional clubs and message boards/forums. But is it really blowing up the way we think it is?
Up until today I hadn't used Google Insights, but figured I'd look into this claim of DG being such a fast-growing sport by verifying it against Google searches (note: you'll need a Google account to view the Insights pages)...and I realize that my data-searching methods are VERY general, which is half the reason for this post; I want to encourage those stat-nerds and number-geeks to show me otherwise!
So, using Insights, I checked the trend of searches for "disc golf" (U.S. only) from May 2004 (the earliest year you can go back) until May 2012 (to keep the years even), and saw no distinct increase in searches over that time; in fact, there is an annual spike upward between May-July, which would be expected with a lot of states in temperate climates. What I found was slightly surprising: No clear upward swing in Google searches for "disc golf"; in fact, a pretty obvious trend of bell-curve-like interest with the maximums at the aforementioned summertime peaks.
What interested me further was at the bottom of the Insights results page, where "Rising Searches" are broken down and DO indeed show some explosion (specific searches for "disc golf bag," "disc golf courses," and "disc golf review," for example), with many of these search terms classified as "Breakout" (i.e. more than 5000% increase) searches.
I should note that expanding the Insights for the same time period, but for worldwide, shows interest declining since 2004! And if I narrow it to JUST WISCONSIN, the trend of interest remains pretty unchanged from the national U.S. graph.
So, what am I missing here? Are we disc golfers just victims of our own confirmation bias wherein we intentionally surround ourselves with enough of the subculture that we come to believe it's really exploding (where in reality we are simply seeking out more people/places that are DG friendly and confirming our own suppositions)? Is it really that DG is experiencing greater growth in technology and course installation, but the population actually participating is remaining constant (a la Malthusian principles, where X players are "born" into the sport each year but Y players "die" [i.e. lose interest; only play once and never again], or the notion that there is only "so much room" for disc golf and we probably have reached the pinnacle)?
I am one that definitely believes that DG is growing as evidenced by the sheer number of new courses in the last decade, as well as new startup companies and players! I'd just like to see if someone with real insight into a feature like Insights can show where I'm wrong!
For comparison, I looked at DG vs. Roller Derby over the same period of time (I had posted this speculation on Facebook and was prompted to look into the DG v. Derby issue from one of my female friends who plays DG and participates in roller derby), and roller derby has experienced a much more measurable upswing in popularity based on the Insights graphs (though it is important to note that the biggest spike in interest correlates with the release of the roller derby flick starring the adorable Ellen Page, Whip It, whereas DG has yet to receive an entire Hollywood film dedicated to its subculture; Chains doesn't count!)
Up until today I hadn't used Google Insights, but figured I'd look into this claim of DG being such a fast-growing sport by verifying it against Google searches (note: you'll need a Google account to view the Insights pages)...and I realize that my data-searching methods are VERY general, which is half the reason for this post; I want to encourage those stat-nerds and number-geeks to show me otherwise!
So, using Insights, I checked the trend of searches for "disc golf" (U.S. only) from May 2004 (the earliest year you can go back) until May 2012 (to keep the years even), and saw no distinct increase in searches over that time; in fact, there is an annual spike upward between May-July, which would be expected with a lot of states in temperate climates. What I found was slightly surprising: No clear upward swing in Google searches for "disc golf"; in fact, a pretty obvious trend of bell-curve-like interest with the maximums at the aforementioned summertime peaks.
What interested me further was at the bottom of the Insights results page, where "Rising Searches" are broken down and DO indeed show some explosion (specific searches for "disc golf bag," "disc golf courses," and "disc golf review," for example), with many of these search terms classified as "Breakout" (i.e. more than 5000% increase) searches.
I should note that expanding the Insights for the same time period, but for worldwide, shows interest declining since 2004! And if I narrow it to JUST WISCONSIN, the trend of interest remains pretty unchanged from the national U.S. graph.
So, what am I missing here? Are we disc golfers just victims of our own confirmation bias wherein we intentionally surround ourselves with enough of the subculture that we come to believe it's really exploding (where in reality we are simply seeking out more people/places that are DG friendly and confirming our own suppositions)? Is it really that DG is experiencing greater growth in technology and course installation, but the population actually participating is remaining constant (a la Malthusian principles, where X players are "born" into the sport each year but Y players "die" [i.e. lose interest; only play once and never again], or the notion that there is only "so much room" for disc golf and we probably have reached the pinnacle)?
I am one that definitely believes that DG is growing as evidenced by the sheer number of new courses in the last decade, as well as new startup companies and players! I'd just like to see if someone with real insight into a feature like Insights can show where I'm wrong!
For comparison, I looked at DG vs. Roller Derby over the same period of time (I had posted this speculation on Facebook and was prompted to look into the DG v. Derby issue from one of my female friends who plays DG and participates in roller derby), and roller derby has experienced a much more measurable upswing in popularity based on the Insights graphs (though it is important to note that the biggest spike in interest correlates with the release of the roller derby flick starring the adorable Ellen Page, Whip It, whereas DG has yet to receive an entire Hollywood film dedicated to its subculture; Chains doesn't count!)
