In backcountry skiing there's a scale for avalanche danger that's called the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale that looks something like this:
Simple, Challenging, Complex Hazards
Simple: you can easily and completely avoid hazards.
Challenging: you are more exposed to hazards and there are less routes for you to choose from but you're dealing with just one hazard.
Complex: Dealing with multiple hazards and very likely there's no route that doesn't expose you to at least one hazard.
Now you incorporate your shot skill to the equation and here's where honesty in your game comes into play - if your forehand sucks like mine does, it's not going to magically NOT SUCK.
Solid or Not? Can you make this shot 80% of the time? If you can, consider it solid. Everybody will make mistakes, but you can't go playing layup shots on 20' putts because you won't make it every single time. Now if throwing a backhand anhyzers 300' around a tree and over a water hazard isn't going to work 8 out of 10 times, then take that into consideration because you are in challenging or complex terrain. Perhaps you can layup a flat backhand 275' and save yourself OB strokes, lost discs and frustration. If you're in simple terrain and you're feeling like the 300' anyhzer isn't 80% solid, but the risk is very low - you can go for it. After all, pushing yourself is how you improve.
There's a huge human element to situations where you watch 3 or 4 guys throw a line you are not sure about and you're in the teebox. Ultimately though, you're not playing their game. You're playing your game and you want to stay IN your game.
So what to do when you have a challenging or complex terrain - and there's not a shot you're comfortable with to par the hole? Risk vs. Reward: What's the risk of throwing a 50/50 shot? If you're taking an OB stroke, then ask yourself if you can get further with 2 short throws than you can with one long shot that goes OB? Can you throw 150' and then throw your 2nd shot another 200' gaining you 350' versus a shot that goes OB after 200-250'? You play that shot safe and gain distance and you have higher confidence.
What if it's a 50/50 shot, but there's no OB and a tree that you might hit? Well if the tree's 200' out - hitting it only really poses the risk of getting stuck in the tree - why not give it a shot? Laying up to get around the tree doesn't really gain you too much and you may be able to drive double that distance. Obviously this is a hypothetical and trees can be a huge risk if you're on the wrong side of them, but I think you get my point.
So, is the terrain Simple, Challenging or Complex? Am I solid on this shot or not? In Challenging and Complex terrain stick with solid shots.