Round ratings for split tournament...

[ScottyLove]

Question for Chuck or any other ratings guru:

Because of the sloppy weather, rough terrain, and wanting to get the rounds completely in a timely manner, the field was split in half so that part of the field played the North course first while the other half played the South course. After lunch break, we switched of course... so in the end, all players played both courses. The conditions were the same for both rounds... very little wind, rainy, and miserable to say the least.

My question is... I thought that a the same score on the same course would be rated the same. So why would a 62 round on the North course in the morning be rated 889 but in the afternoon be a 907?

Perhaps this will be fixed later as it seems every tournament I play in has post tournament adjustments... or is there some other factor that I'm not aware of like who you're playing with during that round at work here? Maybe the TD failed to note the course difference in the results? I don't think this is it, because I can see that a 62 on the South course in the morning was a 951.

Just curious...

 

[DavidSauls]

I assume you're referring to unofficial ratings. If so, each round is rated separately, and reflect a bit of variability in a single round. Just as, with 4 rounds on the same course and same layout, you can get somewhat different unofficial ratings.

Unless there were weather differences, these seem to be averaged out to match when the official ratings are done.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

I think the round ratings "take conditions into account" by looking the the scores propogators carded for each round as a whole. Obviously, the scoring the same on agiven course in quite windy conditions and perfect conditions should be rated differently, as they present different challenges.


So while I don't believe the PDGA factors conditions into ratings directly, they're are captured indirectly, by establishing the ratings based on known propogators.

 

[ejvogie]

It all depends on how all the rated people shot and what their ratings were.

 

[ScottyLove]

It all depends on how all the rated people shot and what their ratings were.

I'm very aware of how the ratings work... I'm a propagator myself.

I still am trying to find out why two rounds of the same score on the same course on the same day in the same conditions would be rated differently.

 

[ScottyLove]

Unless there were weather differences, these seem to be averaged out to match when the official ratings are done.

I'm hoping this is the correct answer and makes the most sense... sort of.

I saw a big change in a tournament I played in early April between the unofficial and official ratings.

 

[jeverett]

I'm hoping this is the correct answer and makes the most sense... sort of.

I saw a big change in a tournament I played in early April between the unofficial and official ratings.

In between Unofficial and Official round reporting, players who's round scores are >100 points below their rating are thrown out for purposes of determining the SSA (which is determined using linear regression). So the SSA will typically creep up very slightly between Unofficial and Official round reporting, having the effect of both increasing round ratings and decreasing the interval of rating-points-per-throw-difference. Does that help?

 

[DavidSauls]

I'm very aware of how the ratings work... I'm a propagator myself.

I still am trying to find out why two rounds of the same score on the same course on the same day in the same conditions would be rated differently.

I think it's the small sample of a single round. The same reason the same event, playing 1 course twice on the same day, may produce slightly different results. I think I've read that the variation can be as much as 20 points, though it's generally much less.

 

[joshmo65]

Unofficial ratings take each round separately when calculating the rating. Once the tournament goes official, and as long as the SSAs are fairly close, then all rounds will be averaged together to get the same ratings for the same scores.

 

[scarpfish]

Even with all other factors being equal, unofficial round ratings have always been known to be off from one round to the next. In all honesty though, conditions for any given tourney day are never the same in the morning and afternoon. Warming temperatures, or a 5 MPH up/down tick or directional change in the wind can have an affect on scores.

I honestly wish that they didn't average the rounds when they make results official. Seeing that slight difference helps paint the snapshot of what went on that day.

 

[krupicka]

It may also depend on what divisions were playing which course. If you had players with more stable ratings playing one side and on the other side had players playing which are rapidly improving (read: have lagging depressed ratings), you can see that much of a difference even if all conditions were identical. This is why averaging the rounds together is a good thing.

 

[ScottyLove]

It may also depend on what divisions were playing which course. If you had players with more stable ratings playing one side and on the other side had players playing which are rapidly improving (read: have lagging depressed ratings), you can see that much of a difference even if all conditions were identical. This is why averaging the rounds together is a good thing.

This is the answer I think I was looking for. Pro/Advanced played one course and Int/Rec/Women played the other before switching. If the unofficial rating are only using the propagators for that round only, it makes sense that the 62 shot by the better players would be rated much higher than the 62 shot by the lower players.

This is why the rounds MUST be averaged! Several ratings will go up and some will go down when the tourney goes official I suspect.

 

[1978]

This is the answer I think I was looking for. Pro/Advanced played one course and Int/Rec/Women played the other before switching. If the unofficial rating are only using the propagators for that round only, it makes sense that the 62 shot by the better players would be rated much higher than the 62 shot by the lower players.

This is why the rounds MUST be averaged! Several ratings will go up and some will go down when the tourney goes official I suspect.

No, that wasnt the answer you were looking for. When pool A played Course A they played it differently than when Pool B played Course A. Plain and simple.

Basically, the average round = the average rating of the players that played. There are a ton of factors that can make 1 round rate different than the other. I could probably think of a 1000 small things that could affect a morning to afternoon round. Who knows, if everything is equal, players just might play better in the morning or evening.

But any ways, here is your answer. It is quite simple.
-------------------------
Each round of a tournament is rated, initially, individually. Many factors affect the rating and play of a round. These are unofficial ratings. Then the TD decides what rounds were played in similar conditions / layouts.

The TD looks at all the final factors and reports what rounds are to be rated together or separate on the TD report for the official ratings.

 

[Pwingles]

Wasnt that morning round miserable scotty? Yuck.

 

[ScottyLove]

Wasnt that morning round miserable scotty? Yuck.

I thought both rounds horrible. the place was just a swamp all day. It was slight colder in the afternoon too. I really want to get back there this summer and enjoy the #3 and #4 rated courses in the state in pristine condition as opposed to the slop. It was actually dangerous in some spots... like that mudslide a Basekt #1 on the South course... We actually lost a guy in rec because he tweaked his back and knee during one of his many falls. All of us bit the dust at one point or another.

My 2nd round was the worst of the year for me... but I guess I still had fun? Didn't even deserve the 3rd place cash if you ask me. I was hoping for win #1 and should've easily bested the field of players I was against, but sadly tanked as usual. I'll get them next time!

 

[Cgkdisc]

There can never be two rounds played on the same layout by the same players in the same conditions. Even if that were possible, there would still be natural statistical variance so the Unofficial ratings would not come out the same for the same score. Recognize that it really doesn't matter much if the scores are averaged so everyone gets the same official rating for the same score (which we usually do) because the average of each player's two ratings would end up the same either way. But we average them because we get more complaints when official ratings have different ratings for the same score.

 

[sprintermatt]

OK, a 62 as the hot round in the morning will be rated differently than a 62 that is 5 off the hot round in the afternoon.... that is, if the same propogators (players) play the round. Conditions do not account for the factor of good old luck/skill. A player who averages 930 but shoots the round of his life of 1030 will bring all the scores down as his is vaulted up. It's the law of averages. If 10 people have 10 apples each, and joey ends up with 19, then everyone else will average 9 apples.

How you like them apples?

 

[jeverett]

OK, a 62 as the hot round in the morning will be rated differently than a 62 that is 5 off the hot round in the afternoon.... that is, if the same propogators (players) play the round. Conditions do not account for the factor of good old luck/skill. A player who averages 930 but shoots the round of his life of 1030 will bring all the scores down as his is vaulted up. It's the law of averages. If 10 people have 10 apples each, and joey ends up with 19, then everyone else will average 9 apples.

How you like them apples?

That just comes down to overall sample size, though. One anomalous (good) round in a pool of 10 players may have a significant effect on the round ratings, but as sample size increases the effect gets smaller and smaller (as well as eventually cancelled out by anomalous (bad) rounds.

Also, players need to have at least 8 prior rated rounds in order to count as propagators for the SSA calculation, further diminishing the chances of them suddenly putting up a round 100 points above their rating. Statistically, ~90% of the time players shoot within +/- 30 of their rating.

 

[foo_g]

I thought both rounds horrible. the place was just a swamp all day. It was slight colder in the afternoon too. I really want to get back there this summer and enjoy the #3 and #4 rated courses in the state in pristine condition as opposed to the slop. It was actually dangerous in some spots... like that mudslide a Basekt #1 on the South course... We actually lost a guy in rec because he tweaked his back and knee during one of his many falls. All of us bit the dust at one point or another.

My 2nd round was the worst of the year for me... but I guess I still had fun? Didn't even deserve the 3rd place cash if you ask me. I was hoping for win #1 and should've easily bested the field of players I was against, but sadly tanked as usual. I'll get them next time!

Yeah, I wouldn't say that there was much difference, if any, in the playing conditions during either round.
I'd be interested to hear from anyone that was there that thought otherwise.
Although, it was almost dark by the time we finally finished round 2.
I also went through the same number of towels in both rounds.

 

[ScottyLove]

There can never be two rounds played on the same layout by the same players in the same conditions. Even if that were possible, there would still be natural statistical variance so the Unofficial ratings would not come out the same for the same score. Recognize that it really doesn't matter much if the scores are averaged so everyone gets the same official rating for the same score (which we usually do) because the average of each player's two ratings would end up the same either way. But we average them because we get more complaints when official ratings have different ratings for the same score.

So to be 100% clear... when the TD submits the official results and in the notes describes the same conditions for both round, these will be put together (averaged) so that the same score on the same course will be rated the same?

That is all I was trying to figure out. I totally understand how the Unofficial rated would yield completely different results based on the skills of the players involved. Currently there is a 15 point discrepancy... so I'm guessing just as the lower rated round moving up will make someone happy, the higher rated round potentially moving down will make someone sad.

To me, it only makes sense to have them rated the same at some point all things being equal.

THANKS CHUCK!