PDGA World Championships 2022

[jenb]

Considering Paige had the second highest probability to win after R1, I'm sure it's based on historical performance which might as well be ratings based.

I think I recall Chuck Kennedy posting years back that, before he developed the ratings system, he and/or others came up with some sort of odds system for betting on disc golf and/or ball golf and it proved to make accurate predictions of results over time. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that's the system in use here, but it's pure speculation.

 

[Rastnav]

Considering Paige had the second highest probability to win after R1, I'm sure it's based on historical performance which might as well be ratings based.

Well, Steve West generates those scoring tracks for every tournament based on rating. And, IIRC, we know something about score likelihood based on rating as well (certainly not hard to calculate a distribution of scores based on rating).

Buuutttt ... I don't think that really translates to making these kinds of predictions. I don't think it makes sense for Doss to call tournaments "over" with 3 holes to go, let alone 4 rounds.

 

[Cgkdisc]

I think I recall Chuck Kennedy posting years back that, before he developed the ratings system, he and/or others came up with some sort of odds system for betting on disc golf and/or ball golf and it proved to make accurate predictions of results over time. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that's the system in use here, but it's pure speculation.

I suspect UDisc is not directly using ratings in their calculations since they've done everything else to avoid using them, partly to not step on the PDGA's toes, even when working more closely together a few years ago, and also believing their stats methods are better, more accurate or more useful. As they point out in their blog that explains their process, important elements like weather and course terrain are not yet directly accounted for in any system.

 

[txmxer]

I suspect UDisc is not directly using ratings in their calculations since they've done everything else to avoid using them, partly to not step on the PDGA's toes, even when working more closely together a few years ago, and also believing their stats methods are better, more accurate or more useful. As they point out in their blog that explains their process, important elements like weather and course terrain are not yet directly accounted for in any system.

Yeah, I didn't mean to say it was specifically ratings based, but obviously history based--and what are the ratings other than an indication of a players recent performance history?

I would think they have some additional weighting factors that feed into it as well. For guys like Paul and Ricky, they can't be counted out based on being a few strokes or even several strokes off the lead. They could have some non-stroke based weighting factors as well related to position at the end of the round versus historical tournament finish.

 

[seedlings]

Tomorrow is going to be lit. First time back on a course they already played. Usually when Paul goes course record.

 

[Al Dente]

Ratings are a mystery to me. At the start of the tournament, Tattar was rated 978 and Panis was rated 941. Tattar has been the best player in the world this season while Panis has been living a nightmare week after week. 37 points doesn't reflect the vast difference in their current games. Perhaps, the ratings formula should have a bias in favor of more recent results.

 

[txmxer]

Ratings are a mystery to me. At the start of the tournament, Tattar was rated 978 and Panis was rated 941. Tattar has been the best player in the world this season while Panis has been living a nightmare week after week. 37 points doesn't reflect the vast difference in their current games. Perhaps, the ratings formula should have a bias in favor of more recent results.

It does. 37 points is approximately 4 strokes per 18 holes. A 3 round event, Kona might be 12 strokes behind. That sounds about right.

 

[Flick Maniac]

The most recent 25% or rated rounds get double weighted, IIRC.

However thats still the most recent 25% for the person. Could still be said player played those 25% a year ago.

Perhaps that could be amended to "most recent 25% of rounds that have been played within the last 8 weeks are double weighted" or something, to that the recency boost kind of expires.

 

[Jolt]

Hoping for a fun round today with both Paige and Paul on the lead card. . and the two 2x on the chasecard...

 

[Discette]

Does anyone know why Sarah Hokum is not playing worlds?

 

[seedlings]

Does anyone know why Sarah Hokum is not playing worlds?

They said in coverage Hokum has an injury, but I don't remember what it was.

 

[biscoe]

They said in coverage Hokum has an injury, but I don't remember what it was.

Shoulder something I think... and "Hokom".

 

[pmay5]

Shoulder something I think... and "Hokom".

I don't see how she doesn't have back problems, considering how low she gets on ALLL those forehand throws.

She must do a lot of stretching and exercising to be able to throw those.

 

[Jolt]

I few bigger names in the B and D pool, cant be fun if you started in the A and C pool. . but Tanner goes from the B-pool to the lead in the A pool that must be a first.

 

[Chains Bailey]

Hole 16.

...She doesn't look for disc...

No need to lie about a person.

Cat looked right along with everyone else for her disc.

 

[biscoe]

I few bigger names in the B and D pool, cant be fun if you started in the A and C pool. . but Tanner goes from the B-pool to the lead in the A pool that must be a first.

Not necessarily- pools were not always divided by rating. Very likely to be the first time since they started doing it that way though.

 

[seedlings]

Shoulder something I think... and "Hokom".

Public education. I couldn't find an emoji.

 

[Jolt]

Very strange start to the FPO round. . nerves are high

 

[DanJon]

Nevermind, didn't look hard enough.

 

[Jolt]

Looking on Udisc, Kona isn't listed.

Did they already cut?

Shes in the D-pool playing at the Country club