Too Early Prediction Thread

[JTacoma03]

The Hype has simmered a bit this past week on the forum, let's boot it back up.

We're just under a month away from the start of the NT, with the DGPT opener immediately following.

Here's my 3 biggest "?" storylines going into this season:

- Nate Sexton is now a Major Champion, having won nothing bigger than an A-tier previously. Was it the stars coming together that week in Rock Hill, or can he translate that success and go from a dark horse pick to a consistent threat week in and week out? How sexy is 2018 going to be?



- For the past 4 years it's mainly been the Paul-and-Rick-show. Their consistency has been unmatched on the biggest stages. In seasons where they've won a World Championship:

-- Ricky 2016-2017 - 2 NT/M finishes outside top 5 (20 starts)
-- Paul 2014-2015 - 2 NT/M finishes outside top 5 (22 starts)

Who draws first blood in 2018? Will 2018 finally be the year a 3rd golfer consistently crashes their party? The "best of the rest" have rotated through the spotlight, but nobody seems to be able to hold on for long.



- Who is the proverbial "David", with no spotlight today in the pre-season, who we'll be talking about in 6 months as the 2018 people's champion to battle the Goliaths on tour?

 

[Cgkdisc]

How much will weather play a role during 2018 producing unexpected outcomes?

 

[jmdaire27]

Well, here's to: Simon and Eagle getting into a more consistent game (if Eagle can learn to finish in the big spotlight, I think he'd be a great threat); Shoestrings mounting an impressive comeback; Austin Turner's rise; Conrad hucking JK Aviars 400'; McBride after the sponsorship switch; and more, I'm sure. I don't think Nates big win should go unnoticed. He is always up there. He's very consistent and a great competitor, he's just been playing in the shadows of the current greats.

I'd love to see much more variability in success among the large tournaments. Seeing Rick and Paul on the platform event after event has become redundant.

 

[Halcón]

Eagle needs to blast the monkey off his back and win Worlds. And Will needs to do what's right by his shoulder and not come back 'till he's ready. I've had enough of the Ricky and Paul show. (Even though I like them both)
Uli needs a big win. Barsby too.

Speaking of Paul, congrats on your upcoming wedding. May God bless you both, and give you a lifetime of happiness and prosperity. :thmbup:

 

[SD86]

Speaking of Paul, congrats on your upcoming wedding. May God bless you both, and give you a lifetime of happiness and prosperity. :thmbup:

Amen to that. :thmbup:

As to 2018: Nate Sexton has been near the top for a while, and broke through at the USDGC. I think he will be the same this year... near the top, top 5 finishes, maybe a big win in there.

I believe 2018 will be like 2017: Paul-and-Ricky show, with other players challenging them in this or that tournament, but for the most part one or the other winning. Maybe Eagle or Simon gets a good win and (especially if Eagle) breaks through to become part of the Paul-Ricky conversation on a consistent basis. I see no one else consistently challenging Paul and Ricky, so sorry.

In the women's side, I suspect Catrina will have a better year, I hope Val will keep up her stellar play, but barring injury or family problems, Paige will (continue to) dominate.

 

[Broken Shoulder]

I predict that all of the players will try really hard and have a lot of fun.


Except for Sexton. They will find life touring with a baby to be miserable and they will go home and operate a food truck.

 

[Halcón]

Nate and Val are slowly retiring from DG. They'll still play some big events this year, but it's impossible for them to dedicate as much time on the course, when they want to go full steam ahead with Bevel. But yea, all the best to them as well. Hopefully they can get some bog wins in before riding off into the sunset. (Whenever that may be)

 

[BuiltTooLong]

I believe James W Conrad III is poised for another big year and will take another step forward. Look for his rating to eclipse 1030 and perhaps push 1040. I think Chris Dickerson will also continue to climb the ranks.

Sexton has the best chance of staying at or near the top with McBeth and Wysocki, but his straddle putt lacks the long range putting firepower that those two have. For that reason, I don't think he enters into the territory they've separated into.

I've seen enough extraordinary play from Lizotte and McMahon that fool us into believing they will enter the next tier, but they seem to be sorely lacking the killer instinct to consistently take tournaments down.

 

[Cgkdisc]

Considering Open Pro Worlds is on the Green Mountain courses, take a look at the DGPT results there to get an idea who might contenders.

 

[alpha_dave]

I'm calling it right here, right now....

Philo wins 2018 USDGC

 

[JTacoma03]

I believe James W Conrad III is poised for another big year and will take another step forward. Look for his rating to eclipse 1030 and perhaps push 1040. I think Chris Dickerson will also continue to climb the ranks.

Conrad is in the place now where Eagle was 2 years ago. He had flashes of brilliance last season, and now the spotlight will be on him. How he handles expectations and those gotta-have-it moments where the pressure is the most intense I think will be more telling than how he finishes at the first 2-3 events.

I'd like to see Dickerson polish up the rough edges of his game. He has a feast-or-famine component to his upshots, which is a problem because his outside-the-circle putting wasn't on par last season with the rest of his skillset. I think to really compete he has to establish some consistency with one of those two things. He is very good off the tee though.

 

[BuiltTooLong]

I'd like to see Dickerson polish up the rough edges of his game. He has a feast-or-famine component to his upshots, which is a problem because his outside-the-circle putting wasn't on par last season with the rest of his skillset. I think to really compete he has to establish some consistency with one of those two things. He is very good off the tee though.

I definitely agree with your upshot assessment, seems like he left a lot of meat on the bone on some upshots that he should routinely stick within 10 feet of the basket.

I will disagree a bit on where his putting struggles come from however. It seems that he struggled the most (relative to his peers) on putts between 26-33 foot. This seems common for players that immediately move to a jump putt for anything outside the circle. I think Uli is similar as well. Without looking at the metrics, I would venture to guess that both of their putting percentages are similar or better from 33-40, than from 27-33.

 

[F. Howl]

I'm calling it right here, right now....

Philo wins 2018 USDGC

Tell this to Tennessee at that "pro" clinic he owes you...

 

[biscoe]

Conrad is in the place now where Eagle was 2 years ago. He had flashes of brilliance last season, and now the spotlight will be on him. How he handles expectations and those gotta-have-it moments where the pressure is the most intense I think will be more telling than how he finishes at the first 2-3 events.

James' personality is WAY different from what Eagle's appears to be (known James for years, never met Eagle). I expect to see James continue to deal with things in his usual level-headed fashion.

 

[billyjacko]

I believe James W Conrad III is poised for another big year and will take another step forward. Look for his rating to eclipse 1030 and perhaps push 1040. I think Chris Dickerson will also continue to climb the ranks.

To me, Conrad is already at the next level with guys like Lizotte and Sexton. His trajectory is only going up as well, and will be able to put pressure on the two who run the show at the top.

I really think people don't talk about Dickerson enough. He's lights out, and super consistent. He might not tour as much as other players, but I expect to see more and more of him.

To me Lizotte is the player I'd pick to consistently play at the level Wysocki and McBeth. Playing fewer tournaments this year might help his mental fortitude as well. People forget he was coming off of a major injury last year.

If the Sexyman continues to make strides on his backhand distance (he put some disc's out last year I didn't know he had), he'll continue to compete for wins every week.

 

[BrotherDave]

I didn't see anything in Conrad's game that makes me think he might take a big deep. He might not make as many stupidly long putts as he did last year just b/c he's human but he looked really consistent to me. I'm high on Dickerson as well.

I think Lizotte is the only one capable of being a 3rd wheel to Ricky and Paul's party. Sexton I expect to be in the mix thanks to consistency but Lizotte's got that extra gear Ricky and Paul has, he's just got to figure out how to shift into it more often.

Likewise, I hope Catrina or somebody give Paige some challenge this year. I'd like to see Weese or Fajkus, somebody like that, take another step up.

It will be fun to see how Anthon, Ulibarri, Philo, Barsby, Jerm, MJ and similar tier of players do. Also rooting for the young Prodiscus sponsored guy whose name I can't remember. I think Turner will do well but he's young so expect ups and downs.

As far as general rankings I'll go:
1a: Ricky
1b: McBeth

-----------

A **** load of really good golfers headed by Lizotte, Sexton, Conrad, Anthon, and Eagle.

 

[JTacoma03]

James' personality is WAY different from what Eagle's appears to be (known James for years, never met Eagle). I expect to see James continue to deal with things in his usual level-headed fashion.

FWIW I meant career situations, not personalities, though I agree with your assessment of James. I can vouch for Eagle being very level-headed as well, especially considering his age.

He did get a bit frustrated 2/3rds of the way through a long season last year, but show me the 18-to-21 year old professional athlete who doesn't find that stumbling block in the early part of their career...

 

[dreadlock86]

Anthon is coming out guns blazing, that will be fun to watch. i think Conrad will be near the top most of the season too.

i really hope Barsby finds more success this season; i enjoy watching him play.

 

[Flick Maniac]

My pick for the consistent third wheel is Lizotte too. Last year was stellar already, coming off the injury and all.

It would be fun if someone put together a list of wins in 2017 in the alternate universe where neither Paul nor Ricky existed. Steve West where are you?

 

[Geneva]

Also rooting for the young Prodiscus sponsored guy whose name I can't remember.

Kevin Jones

He just won the Maricopa Meadows open last weekend. https://www.pdga.com/tour/event/34207

It will be very interesting to see how Nate deals with his new life. He has the game to be right there with Paul and Ricky on pretty much any course. But, he will have to be a tour manager, an event organizer, a husband/dad and a disc golf player all at the same time. I bet he can do it all and (at least) keep his rating where it is now.
I see his season being comparable in terms of performance (tons of top 5, and 1 or 2 big wins). And I see him win the USDGC again, this course looks to be made for him.

For the rest of the field, Eagle will be physically on shape for the first time of his life. I mean he was fit, but not yet an athlete.
The only thing I can see blocking Eagle on his way to Paul/Ricky is his mental game. But I guess it comes when you get older...

Simon is ready, let's not forget he came back from an injury last season and immediately surprised everyone. He will be a contender at any tournament if he stops doing 3-putts on clutch moments (Jonesboro).

For the rest, a few names that can break through:
- Austin Turner (because he's lefty)
- Kevin Jones

In Europe:
Linus Carlsson and Vaino Makela both rated 1000+ while being under 20 years old
Peter Lunde, Norwegian Open Champion, born in the 2000s.

Paige will dominate, but is she going to lose this year now than she won't call it out loud ???