Top Player Ratings Over Time

[kiwichiwi]

deleted...wrong thread

 

[retleftolc]

No chance.

There won't be enough 1100 rated rounds to balance out the 1020s

It's possible, but he'd have to play a... umm, non-standard schedule, and play it very well.

 

[roggenb3]

It's surprising that Barry has never hit 1040.

He's been between 1020 and 1039 every update since Aug 2001.

Talk about consistency. Dude's 49 and can still hang with the 2nd tier top pros in MPO.

Kenny's been above 1020 since even earlier, but his rounds played count has fallen dramatically and he has no rating since late 2017.

 

[sidewinder22]

It's surprising that Barry has never hit 1040.

He's been between 1020 and 1039 every update since Aug 2001.

Talk about consistency. Dude's 49 and can still hang with the 2nd tier top pros in MPO.

Kenny's been above 1020 since even earlier, but his rounds played count has fallen dramatically and he has no rating since late 2017.

Climo's been dealing some injuries the past few years.

McCray's another guy that's been 1039, and basically been 1020+ since 2005(1-1019 and 1-1017 in 2016).

Feldberg went 10 years with 1030+.

Doss almost 10 years with 1030+, just a couple 1029s and 1028s.

Anthon been 1020+ since 2006.

 

[Countchunkula]

One thing to keep in mind when comparing players of the current era to Barry/Kenny/etc is that ratings weren't around for much of their primes. Kenny had been dominating for a decade when ratings first came into existence. His lifetime high rating might be even higher if ratings were calculated back in the 90s.

 

[sidewinder22]

#1 and #10 player ratings over last 20 years:
https://www.reddit.com/r/discgolf/comments/am3sgc/player_ratings_for_1_and_10_ranked_players_over/

Looks like inflation to me.

 

[Steve West]

#1 and #10 player ratings over last 20 years:
...
Looks like inflation to me.

A pond that is filling with water looks like it is shifting if you only look at one shoreline.

If both 1998 and 2018 represent samples taken from the same underlying distribution with a mean of 910 and a standard deviation of 37,

the maximum rating among the 1,140 Open men in the 1998 sample would be expected to be 1032 and

the maximum rating among the 9,102 Open men in the 2018 sample would be expected to be 1051.

There may be ratings inflation, but not nearly as much as it would appear without taking into account the larger sample size in later years.

 

[LateWesternSky]

^ brilliant analogy

 

[sidewinder22]

A pond that is filling with water looks like it is shifting if you only look at one shoreline.

If both 1998 and 2018 represent samples taken from the same underlying distribution with a mean of 910 and a standard deviation of 37,

the maximum rating among the 1,140 Open men in the 1998 sample would be expected to be 1032 and

the maximum rating among the 9,102 Open men in the 2018 sample would be expected to be 1051.

There may be ratings inflation, but not nearly as much as it would appear without taking into account the larger sample size in later years.

The rich get richer while the poor get poorer.

 

[brutalbrutus]

I noticed that there are 4 players rated over 1040 and 13 total at 1030+ signed up for LVC. Whats the most 1040+ players in one event if it isn't this one?

 

[pearlybakerbest]

A pond that is filling with water looks like it is shifting if you only look at one shoreline.

If both 1998 and 2018 represent samples taken from the same underlying distribution with a mean of 910 and a standard deviation of 37,

the maximum rating among the 1,140 Open men in the 1998 sample would be expected to be 1032 and

the maximum rating among the 9,102 Open men in the 2018 sample would be expected to be 1051.

There may be ratings inflation, but not nearly as much as it would appear without taking into account the larger sample size in later years.

Isn't that pretty much what inflation is and why printing more money(giving out more ratings) only worsens it.

 

[dorseymatt]

Isn't that pretty much what inflation is and why printing more money(giving out more ratings) only worsens it.

No. The two things are really not at all similar. Adding more players to the pool does not devalue the rest of the players.

With a much larger sample size, we have more outliers (probably at both ends of the curve-- see, Lloyd Weema, e.g.).

 

[XC_Eddy]

No chance.

There won't be enough 1100 rated rounds to balance out the 1020s

Means he has 1020 rated rounds to replace. Lots of room for improvement. It's the reason his rating skyrocketed at the beginning of the 2018 season.

The effect of the grind is Eagle's biggest issue. He seems to get it a little more figured out with each passing year. 2018 was a giant improvement on his 2017. If he takes a similar sized step again this year he absolutely will be the top rated player ever up to this point.

 

[bertha]

nice thread

 

[biscoe]

The effect of the grind is Eagle's biggest issue.

...or the fact that the style of courses changes as the year progresses...

 

[XC_Eddy]

...or the fact that the style of courses changes as the year progresses...

Certainly doesn't help. The style of courses compounds the issue. I'd wager that if the schedule was in reverse order that Eagle would not have played the same open courses nearly as well. His hypothetical reverse schedule second half 2018 wouldn't be nearly as good as is first half 2018 was in reality. Dude came into the season absolutely dialed in.

 

[snappyj]

Certainly doesn't help. The style of courses compounds the issue. I'd wager that if the schedule was in reverse order that Eagle would not have played the same open courses nearly as well. His hypothetical reverse schedule second half 2018 wouldn't be nearly as good as is first half 2018 was in reality. Dude came into the season absolutely dialed in.

Dude was also dialed in on long, open courses, and struggled in the woods. His game is perfect for those types of courses. It just happens to be that most of the early tournaments are not heavily wooded.

 

[JC17393]

Certainly doesn't help. The style of courses compounds the issue. I'd wager that if the schedule was in reverse order that Eagle would not have played the same open courses nearly as well. His hypothetical reverse schedule second half 2018 wouldn't be nearly as good as is first half 2018 was in reality. Dude came into the season absolutely dialed in.

I'd have to ask why the "grind" affected Eagle more than, say, Paul McBeth? Eagle played 23 total events in 2018, McBeth played 25. Yet Paul was winning tournaments in the middle and late parts of the year (DGLO, Idlewild, Delaware, USDGC, HOFC, etc). Is it down to being more experienced in touring and dealing with the "grind"? What's the magic number of years of experience needed to master the "grind"?

I guess what I'm really saying is what happened to the training he and Simon were doing over in Europe last winter? It certainly got them off on the right foot early but did it not maintain? Or did it maintain just fine and the courses were the primary reason Eagle stopped winning? Granted, he stopped winning but he didn't stop finishing top 10 (Worlds was his only finish outside the top 10 all year).

 

[XC_Eddy]

I'd have to ask why the "grind" affected Eagle more than, say, Paul McBeth? Eagle played 23 total events in 2018, McBeth played 25. Yet Paul was winning tournaments in the middle and late parts of the year (DGLO, Idlewild, Delaware, USDGC, HOFC, etc). Is it down to being more experienced in touring and dealing with the "grind"? What's the magic number of years of experience needed to master the "grind"?

I guess what I'm really saying is what happened to the training he and Simon were doing over in Europe last winter? It certainly got them off on the right foot early but did it not maintain? Or did it maintain just fine and the courses were the primary reason Eagle stopped winning? Granted, he stopped winning but he didn't stop finishing top 10 (Worlds was his only finish outside the top 10 all year).

Eagle has in the past gotten to the end of the season and been mentally done, and has said so in interviews. In 2017 he skipped the Pro Tour Finale and the Hall of Fame Classic because he wanted his touring season to end.

Even with skipping those two large events at the end of 2017, he played fewer events in 2018 (23) than in 2017 (26). This was by design. Notably, Eagle would go home to CO between tournaments if possible during 2018, and skipped out on several Pro Tour events intentionally to preserve himself for the duration of the season. Most players of his caliber aren't playing a random C tier in their home state in April, which is exactly what Eagle did between Jonesboro and GBO (which he then proceeded to win). He also played no tournaments for a month and a half after Konopiste. Again, by design.

On the open course narrative: Eagle won Beaver State Fling this year. That is no open bomber's paradise. Just saying.

 

[BuiltTooLong]

I'd have to ask why the "grind" affected Eagle more than, say, Paul McBeth? Eagle played 23 total events in 2018, McBeth played 25. Yet Paul was winning tournaments in the middle and late parts of the year (DGLO, Idlewild, Delaware, USDGC, HOFC, etc). Is it down to being more experienced in touring and dealing with the "grind"? What's the magic number of years of experience needed to master the "grind"?

I'm sure experience, mental fortitude, desire to be great, and killer instincts all helped Paul excel later in the year, but I believe Paul flying to and from events last year helped keep him fresh as well.

What I find interesting is that this year, he's going to be driving on tour again, whereas Sexton is going to be the one flying to and from events. We'll see if perhaps Sexton is sees a bump in success later in the year and Paul gets worn down.