Corona Virus and Leagues

[DavidSauls]

It's a tough battle here in the real world, what with so many invaders.

 

[MikeK]

I don't even know what you are going on about. Malaria, pneumonia or diarrhoea have been running rampant in third world nations for decades. The socio-economic, cultural and economic environment of those countries, alone, provide for more than enough variable to discount the comparison. The use of African countries to have any semblance of a conversation about COVID, in this country, can only be dismissed as trolling.

This has been a pretty robust thread, and I think everyone understands the need to start the economy. I have seemed to defend the concept of saving as many lives as possible, by limiting the sick, to the capacity of the healthcare system. The real point of the lockdowns and stay at home orders. It worked.

I still have failed to see what your point is. I can only seem to take away that you think your "rights" and convenience should have no price or consequence. You really seem frightened by the faltering economy, as we all are. But, you don't really have anyone to blame. The economy is and will falter until a vaccine is developed and distributed worldwide.

I get you are frightened and you can continue to shout about your rights and what was done wrong yesterday, but the virus will march on. The success of the economy, and with saving lives, is all of us taking the science seriously and trying to do the best by all. It is not hard or that complicated. We all be altruistic, social warriors and both the economy and lives are saved, or everyone does what is best for them and we will mostly fail on both counts. I think we will see how it goes in many places across the country.....by, I say Sept/Oct. Nobody hopes I am wrong, more than me!!

So me posting an opinion from the chief doctor of the United Nations health organization saying the lockdown will probably have unintended consequences of killing poor children across the globe is trolling?

That's the best you've got? Please, spare us all anymore of your sanctimonious crap. You can't even respect anyone with a differing opinion.

 

[MikeK]

Rupor do you realize what you sound like?

"Disease has been running rampant in Africa for decades, who cares if more people over there die! We have to save the rich people in America first!"

Are you trolling us?

 

[Monocacy]

So me posting an opinion from the chief doctor of the United Nations health organization saying the lockdown will probably have unintended consequences of killing poor children across the globe is trolling?

Apologies if I missed it, but what actions are you proposing? What do you think is the best balance between public health and economic activity?

I would be genuinely interested to hear your proposal.

 

[LateWesternSky]

So me posting an opinion from the chief doctor of the United Nations health organization saying the lockdown will probably have unintended consequences of killing poor children across the globe is trolling?

This is like you're saying "my dad is tougher than your dad". You're completely ignoring all the other qualified medical professionals who are saying the lockdowns are a good thing.

 

[MikeK]

Apologies if I missed it, but what actions are you proposing? What do you think is the best balance between public health and economic activity?

I would be genuinely interested to hear your proposal.

For the sake of not wasting anyone's precious time, rather than typing all day, let's say I am proposing to do whatever they did in Sweden where the rate of infection is less than some places that locked down.

 

[MikeK]

This is like you're saying "my dad is tougher than your dad". You're completely ignoring all the other qualified medical professionals who are saying the lockdowns are a good thing.

Leave my dad out of this before I start talking about your mom. I am not completely ignoring other professionals. I don't think they can put you in the boxcar fast enough if that's what you interpreted.

 

[Monocacy]

For the sake of not wasting anyone's precious time, rather than typing all day, let's say I am proposing to do whatever they did in Sweden where the rate of infection is less than some places that locked down.

Ah the Swedish solution. The U.S. lacks a few things that are keys to Sweden's approach to the pandemic, including early recognition and testing, a robust welfare state, and a high rate of compliance with government recommendations:

A key distinction for Sweden is that its government believed it didn't need to enforce guidelines regarding social distancing on a population that would heed the advice of the country's independent public agencies. . . . This trust is a "fundamental element of Swedish society," said Olofsdotter. "That's why we can work with recommendations, because most people actually follow them."

. . .

But Sweden benefits from a robust welfare state that the government has only sought to boost during the pandemic, including an initiative to fast-track sick pay to ensure those with symptoms don't possibly spread the virus. . . . "It shouldn't be an economic issue that you go to work no matter what."

. . .

The country's economy is heavily dependent on now-snarled global supply chains and is projected to suffer somewhere between a 6 to 7 percent hit to its gross domestic product this year — approximately on par with the United States and Germany.​

(Washington Post, May 12, 2020)

Also worth keeping in mind is that Sweden has a COVID-19 death rate that is considerably higher than the U.S.; in fact, Sweden's COVID-19 death rate is one of the highest in the developed world (graph from Business Insider).

 

[Jay Dub]

I guess it depends on what you want to believe.

Americans calling for herd immunity should look at Sweden's coronavirus experiment to see why it won't work

https://www.businessinsider.com/ame...den-experiment-coronavirus-not-working-2020-5

 

[Jay Dub]

From the article I linked above.


As of Friday morning, Sweden, which has a population of 10.23 million, had 29,207 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 3,646 deaths from the virus — a death rate of 35.64 deaths per 100,000 people.

The US, meanwhile, has had 1.45 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 86,607 deaths from the virus. With a population of 328.2 million, the country has a death rate of 26.3 deaths per 100,000 people.

 

[MikeK]

Not that much of a difference.

Sweden's rates are lower than Italy, Spain and other countries but that's apparently too convenient to ignore for many of you.

 

[Jay Dub]

From another expert.


Health officials have called the concept of herd immunity 'dangerous'

Epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins University have called the concept herd immunity a "dangerous misconception" and said the US remains vulnerable to the virus. The World Health Organization also criticized the idea of herd immunity on Monday.

"This idea that, 'Well, maybe countries who had lax measures and haven't done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?' This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation," Mike Ryan, WHO's executive director of health emergencies, said.

 

[Jay Dub]

And then there's this from the same article.

The architect behind Sweden's coronavirus plan even said he wasn't sure if the relaxed approach is working.

"I'm not convinced at all," Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, told the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet on May 1.

 

[MikeK]

You're making my point for me JayDub, which is that it's so contagious lockdowns are not as effective as claimed. Didn't Governor Cuomo claim 2/3'ds of new cases were from people who stayed home? Why yes, he did:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1201421

Gov. Cuomo said "personal behavior" could be an ultimate factor in staying safe from the virus.
"Much of of this comes down to what you do to protect yourself," Cuomo said.

"Everything is closed down. Government has done everything it could. Society has done everything it could. Now it's up to you. Are you wearing a mask? Are you doing the hand sanitizer? If you have younger people who are visiting you and may be out there and may be less diligent with the social distancing. Are you staying away from older people?"

 

[DavidSauls]

From the article I linked above.


As of Friday morning, Sweden, which has a population of 10.23 million, had 29,207 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 3,646 deaths from the virus — a death rate of 35.64 deaths per 100,000 people.

The US, meanwhile, has had 1.45 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 86,607 deaths from the virus. With a population of 328.2 million, the country has a death rate of 26.3 deaths per 100,000 people.

Not only that, but it's 7 or 8 times greater than the death rates in Finland and Norway, the two most-similar countries that it happens to be sandwiched between.

 

[MikeK]

I'll concede that the Finland/Norway data makes the case that locking down does make a difference. But will it make a difference in the long run? Can Finland and Norway stay locked down forever?

 

[Jay Dub]

No one has said we or anyone should stay locked down forever.
This is a good time to be a team player, the dismissers won't do that it seems.

 

[DavidSauls]

I'll concede that the Finland/Norway data makes the case that locking down does make a difference. But will it make a difference in the long run? Can Finland and Norway stay locked down forever?

Good question. All that data says is that, so far, Sweden's decisions have resulted in a lot of deaths. The long run is speculation---about herd immunity and the rest. Should it work, with a lot of early deaths but fewer deaths in the end, Sweden will be praised for ripping off the bandaid. If it doesn't---if Sweden ends up with a lot more deaths than others, or has to go to a belated lockdown because it gets worse---it'll look like a terrible gamble.

*

"Locked down forever" isn't the only option. Locked down until a vaccine (likely to be longer than can be endured), or until better treatments are found (which I'd guess is more likely than a vaccine), or into a partial opening to keep the damage manageable (as many states are gambling on) are other options.

 

[Monocacy]

"Locked down forever" isn't the only option. Locked down until a vaccine (likely to be longer than can be endured), or until better treatments are found (which I'd guess is more likely than a vaccine), or into a partial opening to keep the damage manageable (as many states are gambling on) are other options.

Testing, tracing, and isolation is where we should be heading. We need to be able to test asymptomatic people, trace their contacts, and then test those people, etc. until the trail runs out.

That is how other countries have managed to keep things under control.

Right now we are only testing people with symptoms, even though > 50% of infections are spread by asymptomatic people.

 

[DavidSauls]

Testing, tracing, and isolation is where we should be heading. We need to be able to test asymptomatic people, trace their contacts, and then test those people, etc. until the trail runs out.

That is how other countries have managed to keep things under control.

Right now we are only testing people with symptoms, even though > 50% of infections are spread by asymptomatic people.

No argument. Except that we need to be doing a lot of things, this included.