Dave Feldberg, shot selection, and disc golf math

[azplaya25]

https://youtu.be/0SGvL_gL7go

I thought this was a very interesting video by Feldberg, and wanted to see what others thought about the math behind his decision making at the end.

Cliff notes for those too lazy to watch the vid:

You are trying to decide between two lines to take on a hole.

Line 1 is your bread and butter shot, and you estimate there is a 90% chance that you birdie. However, the only OB on the hole comes into play if you miss this line, giving you a 10% chance at a bogey.

Line 2 is a shot that you aren't as comfortable with, but there is no danger whatsoever that you bogey. You estimate that 50% of the time you birdie, and 50% of the time you par.

My guess is that most golfers(myself included)choose line 1.

Dave is saying that line 2 is the correct choice.

Thoughts?

 

[Countchunkula]

Assuming par 3:

Line 1 scoring avg - 2.2
Line 2 scoring avg - 2.5

There aren't any holes that I birdie 90% of the time, so this is just a hypothetical for me.

 

[txmxer]

Not sure. Really have to be on the course and see the choice.

If it's a par 4, the math is 50/50 (3x5 + 4x5) =35 strokes
90/10 (3x9 + 5x1) = 32

So, for the logic to be correct, we'd have to assume that those percentages are not accurate to what will really happen.

But, a bogey can mess with you mental game, so avoiding that might make sense.

Of course, guys like Paul and Ricky pretty consistently "go for it". For us mortals, I believe in smart golf will give you the best outcome overall, but it's not always apparent when you are on the course what the smart choice is.

 

[txmxer]

Assuming par 3:

Line 1 scoring avg - 2.2
Line 2 scoring avg - 2.5

There aren't any holes that I birdie 90% of the time, so this is just a hypothetical for me.

we were doing the same math.

 

[scooby snack]

https://youtu.be/0SGvL_gL7go

I thought this was a very interesting video by Feldberg, and wanted to see what others thought about the math behind his decision making at the end.

Cliff notes for those too lazy to watch the vid:

You are trying to decide between two lines to take on a hole.

Line 1 is your bread and butter shot, and you estimate there is a 90% chance that you birdie. However, the only OB on the hole comes into play if you miss this line, giving you a 10% chance at a bogey.

Line 2 is a shot that you aren't as comfortable with, but there is no danger whatsoever that you bogey. You estimate that 50% of the time you birdie, and 50% of the time you par.

My guess is that most golfers(myself included)choose line 1.

Dave is saying that line 2 is the correct choice.

Thoughts?

If you're playing with guys like Feldberg, McBeth, Wysocki, etc. and you have the lead on the last day of a tournament, number 1 is the correct choice because you can't protect your lead from guys like that.

Otherwise, I agree with Dave on number 2 being the correct choice.

 

[elmexdela]

tldw; think about the miss not the make

 

[BogeyNoMore]

Sorry to say, but I don't think the OP quite did the clip justice.

tldw; think about the miss not the make

Elmex got the essence of what he said.
In the clip he mentions thinking about what happens if the shot doesn't go just right. I think that's great advice for tournament play.

Other factors may come into play, such as whether your chasing someone down and need to gain strokes or have a lead and can afford to play safer.

But overall, I agree with what Feldy's laying down here.

 

[autocrosscrx]

So.....

1) This would have been a much better video if he picked a hole where you could actually see the basket and the gaps.

2) Both OP and Feldberg botched the math. Feldberg said 10% chance at a bogey, then presented a scenario where you birdie 6 of 8 times, but bogey the other two. So 75% birdie, 25% bogey. His other scenario was 4 birdies, 2 pars. So 67% birdie, 33% par. Feldy then said the 2nd scenario is 1 shot better. Which isn't really true either.

But yeah, the 2nd choice is clearly better.

 

[Meillo]

tldw; think about the miss not the make

Think about making it, not missing it!

... funny how advice is contrary depending on the situation: If you *plan* your shot, you should think about the miss, but if you *execute* the shot, you should think about making it. ;-)

 

[foxdawg10]

tldw; think about the miss not the make

When planning the shot I agree.

When actually taking / executing the planned shot, always commit 100% to that shot.

 

[ru4por]

In a tournament, I generally have a game plan. I would have already made this decision. I am pretty strict on my game plan usually. I think there could be times that I would change, but I am not a scoreboard watcher and rarely in a spot to win.

 

[ToddL]

Some of these decisions should also take into account what division you're playing and what your goals are.

My general opinion is that in order to win MPO, you have to force yourself to score birdies; to win MA2, you have to avoid bogeys. You're in MA2, in round 1? Play the safer side. You're in MPO, in round 4, 2 holes remaining? Gotta go for it.

 

[dmoore1998]

You have to break down what he says into 2 distinct examples.

Example 1: 10% chance at bogey going right, 90% chance of success going right (not of making birdie, just of completing the hyzer shot).

Example 2: Going right results in 2,2,4,4,2,2. Going left results in 2,2,3,3,2,2

It's not a good example. He's trying to focus on what happens when you miss, but then gives the same results on the "makes" even when one shot is clearly a better shot for your "make". He's trying to make up numbers off the top of his head, it doesn't seem intended to be "math" but just an attempt to put figures behind it. We should probably pretend the word "math" doesn't exist here.

Cliff Notes are essentially: Throw the shot that results in the best average score, not just the shot where the best possible result occurs when everything goes right. I see a lot of this in our double's league. Someone has a wide open 100 foot shot...their partner wants to take the shot that's 150 feet away and surrounded by trees because "I made it from here 3 weeks ago", I've never made it from that other spot.

 

[scooby snack]

Some of these decisions should also take into account what division you're playing and what your goals are.

My general opinion is that in order to win MPO, you have to force yourself to score birdies; to win MA2, you have to avoid bogeys. You're in MA2, in round 1? Play the safer side. You're in MPO, in round 4, 2 holes remaining? Gotta go for it.

Exactly. It's all about strategy.

 

[biscoe]

In a tournament, I generally have a game plan. I would have already made this decision. I am pretty strict on my game plan usually. I think there could be times that I would change, but I am not a scoreboard watcher and rarely in a spot to win.

I am definitely a scoreboard watcher late in my rounds and abandon my game plan like Irsay sneaking out of Cleveland. I have definitely won one event due to it (could make argument that I have won 2) and it has probably cost me 10 rating points minimum.

 

[BillFleming]

Forget about applying the percentages to YOU. Those are HIS figures, based on his ability. His point is....
1. look at the available options
2. figure out which throw/disc you have for each option
3. choose the option that gives you the best outcome for the hole.

There's a Paul Ulibarri video (link below) where he plays left handed, giving an 'amateurs' point of view on throw options, while Brian Earhart does the 'pro' options. Paul's #1 advice is "bogey is bad"....always play to par and the birdies will come. Both videos are making the same point....find your options, know what you are capable of, pick the best option to make par (or as Paul says - to not bogey).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoS4Fr-FGPM

 

[scooby snack]

Forget about applying the percentages to YOU. Those are HIS figures, based on his ability. His point is....
1. look at the available options
2. figure out which throw/disc you have for each option
3. choose the option that gives you the best outcome for the hole.

There's a Paul Ulibarri video (link below) where he plays left handed, giving an 'amateurs' point of view on throw options, while Brian Earhart does the 'pro' options. Paul's #1 advice is "bogey is bad"....always play to par and the birdies will come. Both videos are making the same point....find your options, know what you are capable of, pick the best option to make par (or as Paul says - to not bogey).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoS4Fr-FGPM

This is good advice, but as you (and your competition) get better, playing for par isn't always as good of a strategy as it is for less skilled players.

It's about risk/reward, and which is the correct strategy for any given hole at any point during a tournament.

 

[Rastnav]

Forget about applying the percentages to YOU. Those are HIS figures, based on his ability. His point is....
1. look at the available options
2. figure out which throw/disc you have for each option
3. choose the option that gives you the best outcome for the hole.

There's a Paul Ulibarri video (link below) where he plays left handed, giving an 'amateurs' point of view on throw options, while Brian Earhart does the 'pro' options. Paul's #1 advice is "bogey is bad"....always play to par and the birdies will come. Both videos are making the same point....find your options, know what you are capable of, pick the best option to make par (or as Paul says - to not bogey).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoS4Fr-FGPM

I'm going to call BS here.

Not that Uli is giving BS advice, but that he is speaking out of both sides of his mouth. You can see this on hole #3 where he gives the "don't bogey" tip on the tee.

He says his two goals are to "hit the gap" and "get it past the basket". Note that goal two is in contradiction with goal #1. If he really wanted to make sure he hit the gap, he'd be playing a hyzer that opens up the gap and finishes short, rather than a flippy disc that is more likely to finish past the basket, but brings more trouble into play. If he was playing the hole for par, he'd chip to short of the mouth of the gap, chip up to the basket, and take the tap in par.

He also is giving advice on that same hole that's basically "make sure you run every putt, including 30+ footers, get the disc chain high, and don't get focused on not three putting". Well, if you take that approach, you better be excellent at making those comebackers, or you will be taking bogeys. But you aren't excellent at making comebackers. Not being good at putting is part of the premise of the video.

I think what he is really saying is to play shots that can get you at least a long birdie putt, but given that, maximize your chance at par. I'd say that whether it works for you depends a lot on how the course sets up for you. I doubt I would take that advice, because I don't have the length to do it on pretty much any tourney course setup. And, the longer the disc, the less accurate I get. I just don't get many birdies on non rec level courses (which don't seem to get used much for tournaments).

If I want to actually finish around par, I'll have to play for par.

 

[azplaya25]

Sorry to say, but I don't think the OP quite did the clip justice.


Elmex got the essence of what he said.
In the clip he mentions thinking about what happens if the shot doesn't go just right. I think that's great advice for tournament play.

Other factors may come into play, such as whether your chasing someone down and need to gain strokes or have a lead and can afford to play safer.

But overall, I agree with what Feldy's laying down here.

Maybe I didn't, just wanted to start a conversation about the percentages he was using because it wasn't making sense to me

 

[azplaya25]

2) Both OP and Feldberg botched the math.

I didn't do any math, just stated what feldberg said in the video. His math didn't make sense to me