Dave Feldberg, shot selection, and disc golf math

[ChrisWoj]

https://youtu.be/0SGvL_gL7go

I thought this was a very interesting video by Feldberg, and wanted to see what others thought about the math behind his decision making at the end.

Cliff notes for those too lazy to watch the vid:

You are trying to decide between two lines to take on a hole.

Line 1 is your bread and butter shot, and you estimate there is a 90% chance that you birdie. However, the only OB on the hole comes into play if you miss this line, giving you a 10% chance at a bogey.

Line 2 is a shot that you aren't as comfortable with, but there is no danger whatsoever that you bogey. You estimate that 50% of the time you birdie, and 50% of the time you par.

My guess is that most golfers(myself included)choose line 1.

Dave is saying that line 2 is the correct choice.

Thoughts?

I think I'm with the others in this thread where I agree with his process, but I don't quite agree with it if the math he's using is what you described (90-10 vs 50-50). I definitely choose my shots in order to avoid OB (or deep woods that effectively play as OB) as much as I can. But I also play a game where I have pretty equal confidence in multiple backhand lines and multiple forehand lines (not that any of those lines are Touring Pro level), so I'm going to feel a lot more comfortable playing a shot to explicitly avoid the bogey.

 

[scooby snack]

I'm going to call BS here.

Not that Uli is giving BS advice, but that he is speaking out of both sides of his mouth. You can see this on hole #3 where he gives the "don't bogey" tip on the tee.

He says his two goals are to "hit the gap" and "get it past the basket". Note that goal two is in contradiction with goal #1. If he really wanted to make sure he hit the gap, he'd be playing a hyzer that opens up the gap and finishes short, rather than a flippy disc that is more likely to finish past the basket, but brings more trouble into play. If he was playing the hole for par, he'd chip to short of the mouth of the gap, chip up to the basket, and take the tap in par.

He also is giving advice on that same hole that's basically "make sure you run every putt, including 30+ footers, get the disc chain high, and don't get focused on not three putting". Well, if you take that approach, you better be excellent at making those comebackers, or you will be taking bogeys. But you aren't excellent at making comebackers. Not being good at putting is part of the premise of the video.

I think what he is really saying is to play shots that can get you at least a long birdie putt, but given that, maximize your chance at par. I'd say that whether it works for you depends a lot on how the course sets up for you. I doubt I would take that advice, because I don't have the length to do it on pretty much any tourney course setup. And, the longer the disc, the less accurate I get. I just don't get many birdies on non rec level courses (which don't seem to get used much for tournaments).

If I want to actually finish around par, I'll have to play for par.

Come back to this video in 6 - 12 months. I think you'll find Paul's advice to be very sound.

 

[Rastnav]

Come back to this video in 6 - 12 months. I think you'll find Paul's advice to be very sound.

I didn't say his advice wasn't "sound". I said the summarization of his advice as "play for par and avoid bogeys" was BS.

Also, I'm not sure what you think is going to happen in 6 to 12 months. I could assume what you mean, but I assume you know what they say about assuming.

 

[scooby snack]

I didn't say his advice wasn't "sound". I said the summarization of his advice as "play for par and avoid bogeys" was BS.

Also, I'm not sure what you think is going to happen in 6 to 12 months. I could assume what you mean, but I assume you know what they say about assuming.

As you get more experience, your insight to why you run 30 foot putts, or throw a flippy disc uphill, makes more sense.

 

[oldmandiscer]

But given the tournament scenario I think Feldy still chooses the BH play. He doesn't trust his FH to park the shot often, while his BH should a high percentage of the time.

He's sort of contradicting himself here.

I agree with his point, what is the miss? Can I miss it over here and still give myself a 40 footer with little risk of a bogey? Then that is likely the smart play rather then trying to throw the park job which bring OB into play.

 

[Ahildy13]

Shut up OMD.

 

[oldmandiscer]

Shut up OMD.

So hostile, why you so angry?

 

[rhatton1]

But given the tournament scenario I think Feldy still chooses the BH play. He doesn't trust his FH to park the shot often, while his BH should a high percentage of the time.

He's sort of contradicting himself here.

I agree with his point, what is the miss? Can I miss it over here and still give myself a 40 footer with little risk of a bogey? Then that is likely the smart play rather then trying to throw the park job which bring OB into play.

That was exactly my thought There is no way in the world Feldberg throws anything but backhand flat hyzer on that hole.

The point in general is good, there is no way he is following his own advise though on that hole!

 

[dmoore1998]

That was exactly my thought There is no way in the world Feldberg throws anything but backhand flat hyzer on that hole.

The point in general is good, there is no way he is following his own advise though on that hole!

Sure he's following his own advice. He didn't say the %s are HIS percentages (and I don't think there's actually OB on that hole). He probably sees his percentages as:

birdie 90% of the time BH
par 10% of the time BH

Birdie 40% of the time FH
Par 60% of the time FH

He's throwing out hypothetical numbers based on what people may see when they approach a hole. He is throwing BH, because his average BH score is probably significantly beneath his average FH score there.

ETA: Honestly the math part of this is EASY. The hard part is what he just glosses over because it's very hard...self-diagnosing your own abilities and likely outcomes of each shot type.

 

[Dcinmd]

abandon my game plan like Irsay sneaking out of Cleveland.

Perhaps your plan would work better if you model it after Art Modell?

 

[araytx]

TO me what he is basically saying is what I subscribe to:

In most situations (excluding getting close to the end of the event and I HAVE to make a certain score to advance a place or win on a specific hole), I am going to choose the shot that gives me the best average score, based upon my personal abilities, the majority of the time. The easiest example is a shot where I can take my "Less than optimal" shot and get a par every time, vs taking my bread & butter shot where I am going to par 40% bogey+ 40% and birdie 20%. That is where Feldy was trying to go, and perhaps he posted the video before he technically didn't proof-view himself to be sure he was saying what he meant to say.

What he means is you should choose the shot that results in the better average score nearly every time -- and THAT I agree with.

 

[foxdawg10]

That was exactly my thought There is no way in the world Feldberg throws anything but backhand flat hyzer on that hole.

The point in general is good, there is no way he is following his own advise though on that hole!

Feldy definitely throws backhand on that hole. I think he was introducing the forehand hyzer as an option for those with a reliable forehand.

I prefer to call the shot he threw a straight fade though, hyzer refers to release angle and not the fade at the end. Backhand Hyzer release would not necessarily have given him the same result, and would introduce trouble on the right side of the fairway.

 

[Horsman]

Real life here for me. The 9 holer I have been playing for the past year recently had a walking path put in around the course. The path will most likely be OB. Hole 1 will now have OB about 10' from the basket. I have a 87% birdie rate on the hole with my current route. That route now brings the OB into play very easily. I will now be switching to a new route that will take the chance of OB down a bunch but is also a harder route to birdie. I think both Feldy and Uli have sound advice but it matters more how much skill you have and the situation you are in.

 

[txmxer]

I think the issue is as much the example.

Over at Saddle Hill, #9 is an elevated basket mounted on a big rock. I end up somewhere between c1 & c2 most of the time on my tee shot. If I go for it I'm probably going to miss the putt, but it's the big rock that's going to kick the disc out and make the comeback a problem. I'm way better off just sliding it up to the base of the rock and taking a 3.

 

[Steve West]

I looked at this a while back here.

Here is what I found.

Conclusions:

The lower third of players climb up through the rankings primarily by avoiding getting higher scores than the field. Everyone gets a few low scores, but those birdies don't make much difference in the final standings.

The top third of players climb through the rankings by both avoiding high scores, and getting low scores. There are enough low scores to affect the standings. However, avoiding high scores is still more important.

So, there is truth to the statement that Birdies are more important for sorting out top players than they are to sorting out the rest of the field.

However, the effect of high scores is stronger than the effect of low scores throughout the field, even for the top third. (A possible exception is the very top ranked one or two players who appear to use low scores to break away from the rest of the field.)

 

[txmxer]

I looked at this a while back here.

Here is what I found.

And it makes sense. In general low is -1. Trouble begets trouble and +1 can quickly grow.

 

[biscoe]

Perhaps your plan would work better if you model it after Art Modell?

or sneak out of Baltimore... I apologize for insulting the fine city of Cleveland...