WACO Charity Open presented by Prodigy

[Steve West]

I was thinking about something after the tournament. I was interested in seeing how the scores compared over the past seven years...

When looking only at the tails, a lot depends on the number of top players. in 2017, there were 7 MPO rated 1020+. This year there were about 44?

Even if the weather, the skill of the players, and the difficulty of the course had not changed, there was a much larger pool of players who could get lucky; resulting in lower top scores.

 

[Brychanus]

I analyzed the scores for the WACO 2023 MPO players rated above 969 (which was all 166) and the 45 players in the FPO field rated above 899.

Are you doing anything similar for the Open at Austin? That course is getting a lot of criticisms from various perspectives and I'm curious how it played out in terms of your breakdown.

 

[Steve West]

Are you doing anything similar for the Open at Austin? That course is getting a lot of criticisms from various perspectives and I'm curious how it played out in terms of your breakdown.

Maybe. Got a few things of higher priority.

 

[JoeyH]

............MPO Score ....Top 10 Separation.... Top 50 Separation.... FPO Score.... Top 10 Separation
2017.....167 .....................10 ............................28 ....................190 ..................28
2018 ....168 ......................8 .............................20 ....................194 ..................31
2019 ....158 .....................12 ............................29 ....................189 ..................25
2021 ....163 .....................12 ............................19 ....................185 ..................19
2022 ....166 ......................8 .............................18 ....................192 ..................11
2023 ....158 ......................8 .............................17 ....................187 ...................9

Hopefully this is a little easier to read.
The score is the winning score and the separation is the number of strokes separating the winning score from 10th place and 50th place.

 

[JoeyH]

When looking only at the tails, a lot depends on the number of top players. in 2017, there were 7 MPO rated 1020+. This year there were about 44?






Even if the weather, the skill of the players, and the difficulty of the course had not changed, there was a much larger pool of players who could get lucky; resulting in lower top scores.

My point is, players are getting better. There where less 1020+ rated players in 2017 than today. I think, you are going to have less scoring separation near the top end at most of the tournaments this year.




I think the scores are pretty close from year to year and weather could be a factor affecting the overall winning score. It's not a lucky course. I'm not sure what you mean there.

 

[Steve West]

... It's not a lucky course. I'm not sure what you mean there.

All courses generate some luck. But, even if they didn't, the players themselves would have good or bad days randomly. For example, you can never predict when the spin putt will be "on" or "off".

That's why even the top players need to play above their rating to win - because half the other top players will be having an above-average day.

 

[Steve West]

My point is, players are getting better. There where less 1020+ rated players in 2017 than today. ...

That's not evidence that players are getting better. That's evidence there is a larger pool of players. As a result, the pool of top players is larger. They're drawn from a bigger pool that has the same distribution of scores as the 2017 pool.

Paul isn't better. Gannon isn't better, but he's been added to the pool. Some 17 year old who was as talented as Gannon in 2017 wasn't in the pool then.

 

[ejvogie]

It's not a lucky course. I'm not sure what you mean there.

It looks like a course where you make your own luck, just hit your lines. I think if luck plays any factor, it's if you miss your line and get a sneaky good route/kick.

 

[JoeyH]

That's not evidence that players are getting better. That's evidence there is a larger pool of players. As a result, the pool of top players is larger. They're drawn from a bigger pool that has the same distribution of scores as the 2017 pool.

Paul isn't better. Gannon isn't better, but he's been added to the pool. Some 17 year old who was as talented as Gannon in 2017 wasn't in the pool then.

I am in agreement. Not much difference in the highest rated players from 2017 to 2023 (Paul is 1050 for pretty much that entire period). The pool is catching up to them and giving more players a chance to win. I think you are going to see more players with a chance to win and more players within striking distance on the final day.

Scoring Separation for the FPO, to me, looks as though the pool is getting larger and better.

 

[Brychanus]

That's not evidence that players are getting better. That's evidence there is a larger pool of players. As a result, the pool of top players is larger. They're drawn from a bigger pool that has the same distribution of scores as the 2017 pool.

Paul isn't better. Gannon isn't better, but he's been added to the pool. Some 17 year old who was as talented as Gannon in 2017 wasn't in the pool then.

I am in agreement. Not much difference in the highest rated players from 2017 to 2023 (Paul is 1050 for pretty much that entire period). The pool is catching up to them and giving more players a chance to win. I think you are going to see more players with a chance to win and more players within striking distance on the final day.

Scoring Separation for the FPO, to me, looks as though the pool is getting larger and better.

I think what Steve is observing is that as the pool of players grows, we're just drawing more people from the same theoretical distribution. So the tail of the distribution near the top (touring pros) is "filling in" as the overall number of players grows and more people go on tour.

 

[Cgkdisc]

The player base has become a bigger "iceberg" with more above the 1000-rated water line but the same percentage of visible berg.

 

[araytx]

I'm just thinking if you're worried about being one of the 28% or so of the scores taking 4 or worse... You could do a lot worse than trying to fly the in bound area down there. If you can reliably avoid getting knocked down early it definitely feels like a simple approach for par.

23:45
As promised, here it is. Interestingly Simon "(-line)" Lizotte also plays it differently going big hyzer, big hyzer.

 

[JoeyH]

The player base has become a bigger "iceberg" with more above the 1000-rated water line but the same percentage of visible berg.

Thank you Chuck. I like your analogy. That's what I was trying to get across.

 

[txmxer]

I am in agreement. Not much difference in the highest rated players from 2017 to 2023 (Paul is 1050 for pretty much that entire period). The pool is catching up to them and giving more players a chance to win. I think you are going to see more players with a chance to win and more players within striking distance on the final day.

Scoring Separation for the FPO, to me, looks as though the pool is getting larger and better.

I think FPO is both increasing the number of talented players as well as improving their game with more players being able to spend more time improving their skill sets. And there is the learning curve. When someone does something different/unique then others pick up on it and add it to their game.

MPO has some of that, but it's much more mature with regard to new methods/techniques.