PDGA World Championships 2022

[Ryan P.]

Quik calc. and it look like 25% of the players missed the island in that last round...so it IS a risky shot.
Is the layup safer/easier? I really dont know but looking at the hole it looks easier/safer.

But did he practice that shot.. maybe not, i do think he practiced the DZ.

Me no like that math. Look at the % of >1040 rated players that missed the island and lets talk

McBeth is the one taking the shot, so let's look at him:

2022 World's (before the playoff): 2/3
2022 DDO: 0/1
2021 DDO: 1/2
2020 DDO: 3/3 (the dock was measured differently but the drive was still dock to island)

2020 was the first year with the Dock (according to UDisc's maps). So McBeth makes the dock to island shot 66% of the time, meaning he wins 66% of the time (albeit this is a small sample). If he misses, the odds are strong that they tie and move to the next hole, resetting the odds to roughly 50/50. Therefore going for the pin results in a win roughly 83% of the time. It also gives Paul the flexibility to go for the birdie if Aaron makes the drop zone putt.

If Paul lays up, his second shot needs to land on the island at least 83% of the time. Not landing on the island is almost a certain loss for him. I'm not getting into all the situations because it's a lot.

What I'm trying to communicate is 83% odds to win + championship mentality + regretting the same mistake last year = no way he lays up, nor should he. Imagine living with the regret of losing two straight world championships because you made the safe play. He lived with the regret of losing one for 14 months.

Is it the right play to lay up? If there's a 90% chance that he executes the layup, approach, and putt, then maybe so. But since there's an 83% win rate if he goes for it, I think psychologically it's a better decision.

 

[Rastnav]

I doubt it. He had just 3 holes earlier landed the island with full "World Title on the line" pressure. Why change up the game plan when you just executed the island shot in almost identical conditions?

On 16 he was behind by a stroke.

The more indicative play was on 18 when he ran the long death putt when he was ahead by a stroke, with Gossage having a short birdie putt. If he missed or got a roll away he could have cost himself the likely playoff.

He was playing to win it, rather than for Gossage to lose it.

 

[nothinbuttree]

On 16 he was behind by a stroke.

The more indicative play was on 18 when he ran the long death putt when he was ahead by a stroke, with Gossage having a short birdie putt. If he missed or got a roll away he could have cost himself the likely playoff.

He was playing to win it, rather than for Gossage to lose it.

The way it should be. World Championships should be won. Not given. Paul most definitely won Worlds this year. Just like James won it last year. Most people forget how well James played down the stretch last year to even be in that position. PM was on fire, and James was matching him. Sorry for the drift, but that back 9 last year was the best.

 

[Rastnav]

The way it should be. World Championships should be won. Not given. Paul most definitely won Worlds this year. Just like James won it last year. Most people forget how well James played down the stretch last year to even be in that position. PM was on fire, and James was matching him. Sorry for the drift, but that back 9 last year was the best.

IDK, I don't think there is anything wrong with playing it whichever way matches your play style. What comes to mind (IIRC) is Paige Shue play 4 putter shots on #8 at ECC to play it for par while on the way to winning worlds. Never going to see PP or Tattar do that, but it fit Shue's game. She isn't any less of a champion.

If you were, say, in similar positions against Blomroos, forcing her to make a short putt rather than running yours might be your best play. It's really about embracing the moment with clarity.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

As a fan: I agree with nothinbuttree: we want to see those vying for a championship seize the moment.

But strategically, I agree with Rastnav:
the smart move is to consider the entirety of the the situation, which includes your strengths/weaknesses, as well as those of the person you're competing against.

...assuming you can focus on just one other competitor at that point.

Gets a lot harder to play that game if three players are all within 1-2 strokes of each other the last few holes of a final round. I think all you can do then is play your strengths.

As Doss pointed out several times down the stretch, order of play, and landing shots inside other players' lies forces them to act first, and can be a huge advantage down the stretch when all the chips be on the line

 

[Arisugawa]

IDK, I don't think there is anything wrong with playing it whichever way matches your play style. What comes to mind (IIRC) is Paige Shue play 4 putter shots on #8 at ECC to play it for par while on the way to winning worlds. Never going to see PP or Tattar do that, but it fit Shue's game. She isn't any less of a champion.

I may be missing some context or reference, but Shue didn't play ECC during Worlds 2018. That was played at Smuggler's Notch. Do you mean Fox Run - the long hole with OB on all sides?

 

[Steve West]

Is that a ball golf hole as well? With that slope, it would be a nightmare.

From what I've observed of golfers, it doesn't seem to make much of a difference whether they are supposed to hit somewhere or not.

 

[nothinbuttree]

the smart move is to consider the entirety of the the situation, which includes your strengths/weaknesses, as well as those of the person you're competing against.

Nah....run everything!

{thinks back to all his own doubles and triples and concedes Bogey may be onto something}

Actually, I think Paul's putt on 18 was an example of him doing both of these--he assessed his own strengths (putting was working for him that round), entirety of the situation--did not want another OT where anything could happen, and was just feeling it, so he went for the putt and the win. He did that last year on USDGC last round hole 18 too, from much farther out, and just barely missed.

 

[Three Putt]

I may be missing some context or reference, but Shue didn't play ECC during Worlds 2018. That was played at Smuggler's Notch. Do you mean Fox Run - the long hole with OB on all sides?

He must be; Fox Run had a par five hole (I thought it was hole 7) with O.B on both sides that Pierce went 8-7-7 on and Bjerkaas just went down the fairway for par on all three rounds. Pierce gave up seven strokes on that one hole and lost the title by six.

By the final round there was a lot of chatter online about why Pierce in the finals wouldn't have just played it safe on a hole that had already bit her twice (as I recall she made the same basic mistake in the finals that she had the day before), but that wasn't her game. We were watching on the Interwebz thinking she was going to make a mistake. That probably never entered her mind, she was probably thinking Bjerkaas was going to play it safe and it was a great chance for her to gain a stroke or maybe two. That mindset is probably why she has championships.

 

[txmxer]

He must be; Fox Run had a par five hole (I thought it was hole 7) with O.B on both sides that Pierce went 8-7-7 on and Bjerkaas just went down the fairway for par on all three rounds. Pierce gave up seven strokes on that one hole and lost the title by six.

By the final round there was a lot of chatter online about why Pierce in the finals wouldn't have just played it safe on a hole that had already bit her twice (as I recall she made the same basic mistake in the finals that she had the day before), but that wasn't her game. We were watching on the Interwebz thinking she was going to make a mistake. That probably never entered her mind, she was probably thinking Bjerkaas was going to play it safe and it was a great chance for her to gain a stroke or maybe two. That mindset is probably why she has championships.

Part of that is believing statistics versus reality. Statistically Paige isn't going to make that same error 3 times in a row even though she's trying to play it the same way. Reality is individual performances are not statistics.

 

[txmxer]

From what I've observed of golfers, it doesn't seem to make much of a difference whether they are supposed to hit somewhere or not.

good point. When I did play I was certainly known for my "unique" shot shaping ability.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

Mc6x talks about this year's World's.

 

[Rastnav]

I may be missing some context or reference, but Shue didn't play ECC during Worlds 2018. That was played at Smuggler's Notch. Do you mean Fox Run - the long hole with OB on all sides?

Honestly, I think I may be running two things together. I wasn't watching pro coverage back in 2018, so I think I'm remembering a commentator talking about that story. It may be that I was watching DDO and while she was playing #8 with the same strategy, it was being compared to the same play at worlds. Not really sure.

 

[Arisugawa]

Honestly, I think I may be running two things together. I wasn't watching pro coverage back in 2018, so I think I'm remembering a commentator talking about that story. It may be that I was watching DDO and while she was playing #8 with the same strategy, it was being compared to the same play at worlds. Not really sure.

Sounds correct. Shue plays her putter shots dependably, keeping things away from the OB. I can see commentators making the comparison between the similar holes at ECC and Fox Run.

 

[Flick Maniac]

I doubt it. He had just 3 holes earlier landed the island with full "World Title on the line" pressure. Why change up the game plan when you just executed the island shot in almost identical conditions?

Exactly. Same thing I thought when AG stepped up to tee for the sudden death. "Just throw what you just threw" Undercommitted flick hyzers out early. Pure nerves. Nothing else changed.

 

[beereakfast]

OB line was drawn at the usual water line. The lake level was a couple feet lower than normal, so the OB line was kept at original position to maintain the normal and typical difficulty and risk/reward of the hole as much as possible.

Had the lake been a few more feet down and the island doubled in size, would you still be okay with no OB lines, given that size increase would make this a stupidly easy hole?

Thank you for a good explanation.
I have only seen that hole on various coverages. It never looked easy.
My issue was the optics. An appearantly fair shot being called foul, and directly effecting the outcome of the tournament.
If you didn't see the ob line, or had seen previeous coverage where dry discs were fair, this looked pretty bad.

Like i said. I'd rather see courses that reward skill shots, rather than pure distance, be used for worlds.
In a perfect world....

 

[Nale72]

Ultiworld Disc Golf/Upshots interview with Kristin about Worlds and other stuff:



https://youtu.be/Rhw56tixmbg

 

[Future_Primitive]

Exactly. Same thing I thought when AG stepped up to tee for the sudden death. "Just throw what you just threw" Undercommitted flick hyzers out early. Pure nerves. Nothing else changed.

AG admitted he was trying to park it and avoid the death putt from the wall he had not made all week. He felt he had to birdie 16 in the playoff or Paul would, so he tried to take a little bit off the shot and simply didnt go as planned. Little bit of nerves mixed with an altered game plan.

 

[txmxer]

AG admitted he was trying to park it and avoid the death putt from the wall he had not made all week. He felt he had to birdie 16 in the playoff or Paul would, so he tried to take a little bit off the shot and simply didnt go as planned. Little bit of nerves mixed with an altered game plan.

The pressure is real. That's what makes PM so special. Records aside, it's making the shot when the heat is on.

 

[Flick Maniac]

A tough microadjustment to make in that situation for sure.