Paul McBeth #27523

[acrosley]

Worlds and Paul in the top two goes hand in hand. . .but this year??

Just a few months ago Paul was 51st at DD Open. . 26 throws behing Ricky. . .if Paul can turn THAT around into a 1st or 2nd at Worlds i would be supriced

Fair point about DDO but IIRC he was playing hurt and the extreme wind really muddied any future prognostications IMO.

He's won on the course before and I would argue until 2 people manage to finish ahead of him at worlds he's still the guy to beat.

 

[hanger129]

Paul had a 17-stroke difference just between two rounds at Champions Cup. It's hard to think he can't improve drastically between DDO and Worlds.

 

[txmxer]

Ricky is the favorite IMO, but I fully expect Paul to be in it.

 

[nothinbuttree]

Is Paul as dominant as he once was? Nope.

Is it because of:
a) The field?
b) Switching from Innova to Discraft?
c) Dude's just getting old?
d) He's got a lot moar on his plate/other work streams?
e) Not as hungry cuz he's makin beaucoup denero?

This is a good set of choices. He is not as DOMINANT mainly because of A. But is he as GOOD, just not as dominant? I think rating is a good answer to that, and I think the answer is not quite, by what, 10-12 points? The answers to why that may be are I believe a combination of D and E mostly. C--not yet. He is still very likely in better shape than 99.9% of people his age, and has been an athlete from his youth. He still throws just as far, has the same shot shaping and putting ability, so I just don't think it is age. It's mostly mental, IMHO--backed up by the observations that he has wild swings in performances this year even from one round to the next. Molds, field, and age have nothing to do with that.

 

[bbwrenn]

No one wants Paul (or Paige) to bag #6 more than the folk$ at Di$craft.

And the way things went down in Utah last year, they both feel they have something to prove.

While I like (and agree) with this post, unfortunately it's an even year so Paige won't be able to take it down.

So then who does? Maybe it's time for a European invasion...

 

[BogeyNoMore]

This is a good set of choices. He is not as DOMINANT mainly because of A. But is he as GOOD, just not as dominant? I think rating is a good answer to that, and I think the answer is not quite, by what, 10-12 points?

I'm not well-versed on exactly how ratings are calculated but, let's delve into this a bit.

Don't propogators' scores for a given round affect round ratings?

If so, as the field shoots lower than previous years' rounds, wouldn't shooting the same as last year rate lower?

In other words, couldn't a player exactly mirror the same scores they shot at the same course last year, and end up with a lower rating, because the field shot lower this year?

If true, one's rating could slip a bit, even though they didn't lose a stroke relative to their previous performance, simply because the competition improved their scores.

 

[nothinbuttree]

I'm not well-versed on exactly how ratings are calculated but, let's delve into this a bit.

Don't propogators' scores for a given round affect round ratings?

If so, as the field shoots lower than previous years' rounds, wouldn't shooting the same as last year rate lower?

In other words, couldn't a player exactly mirror the same scores they shot at the same course last year, and end up with a lower rating, because the field shot lower this year?

If true, one's rating could slip a bit, even though they didn't lose a stroke relative to their previous performance, simply because the competition improved their scores.

True, but if person A is better at a course year over year, then person B should get better as well I would think--we see that at Idlewild. When they first started playing that several years back, the winning score for the tournament rivaled what the hot rounds are now. As players learn each course better each year, they will likely do better.

But I will defer on ratings questions to those here with much more insight than I have. Though I think what you might be hinting at is since so many players are coming up, and THEIR ratings keep increasing, then that would tend to decrease the ratings of players already at the top. That may well be, again I will defer on that!

 

[Nick Pacific]

Pauls form and mechanics are much smoother than Ricky's.

I'd agree with that. Rick is a lot bigger and probably a bit physically stronger than Paul so he makes up for it. And Rick's form isn't necessarily bad either, it's still VERY good, but Paul's form, backhand and forehand, is in GOAT category.

 

[Cgkdisc]

The X factors in any of these analyses on player performance is the nature of the courses played, the conditions they were played in and who in the field played or didn't play the event. After all, this is Disc Golf Course Review and yet the fact that players are actually playing "against" the course is regularly overlooked in commentary, especially when decrying that a player's rating shouldn't be dependent on who shows up. They miss the fact that the propagators first generate the course rating for that round and then from that value, the round ratings. It's not a direct connection.

The implications are that courses with lots of OB penalties play differently from those with minimal or no OB. Shorter courses mean more players can reach the holes which increases the potential for unexpected outcomes, especially in the woods. Until there's more analysis on course differences and the mix that each player plays to earn their ratings, the overall player ratings won't provide the kind of detail that horse racing tip sheets provide indicating whether a horse does well on a muddy track, short track, etc. Our sport will need that level of data sophistication to be taken more seriously by the wagering institutions.

 

[davetherocketguy]

Our sport is going to need to copious amounts of money to be taken seriously by wagering institutions

 

[BogeyNoMore]

I'd agree with that. Rick is a lot bigger and probably a bit physically stronger than Paul so he makes up for it. And Rick's form isn't necessarily bad either, it's still VERY good, but Paul's form, backhand and forehand, is in GOAT category.

I've never seen Paul (or anyone else, for that matter) pitch backhand. :|

 

[BogeyNoMore]

Until there's more analysis on course differences and the mix that each player plays to earn their ratings, the overall player ratings won't provide the kind of detail that horse racing tip sheets provide indicating whether a horse does well on a muddy track, short track, etc. Our sport will need that level of data sophistication to be taken more seriously by the wagering institutions.

Our sport is going to need to copious amounts of money to be taken seriously by wagering institutions

When the whole "Grow the Sport" thing came about, I'm pretty sure wagering wasn't part of that picture. But given how online wagering has completely blown up...

If DG continues to grow in popularity, I suppose being able to plunk $$ down on an tourney is just a matter of time.

 

[foxdawg10]

Our sport is going to need to copious amounts of money to be taken seriously by wagering institutions

I can also see something akin to the Black Sox scandal. These guys don't make much money, i can see all kinds of shenanigans.

 

[2naphish]

I can also see something akin to the Black Sox scandal. These guys don't make much money, i can see all kinds of shenanigans.

if something like that happened i would continue to play but i would never follow pro disc golf again. that would go against everything our sport is built on..

 

[BogeyNoMore]

if something like that happened i would continue to play but i would never follow pro disc golf again. that would go against everything our sport is built on..

I wouldn't say "never," but man, that would shake people's confidence in the integrity of the sport. It would be incredibly damaging to the professional game, given that there so many other things people could invest their time, energy, and money into.

I imagine it would also set back corporate sponsorship and added cash from businesses that might have thought about being associated with a big DGPT tournament.

 

[foxdawg10]

if something like that happened i would continue to play but i would never follow pro disc golf again. that would go against everything our sport is built on..

People would start calling 30 seconds and foot faults in a snap, lol. It would almost be like phantom holding calls in the NFL.

 

[2naphish]

I wouldn't say "never," but man, that would shake people's confidence in the integrity of the sport. It would be incredibly damaging to the professional game, given that there so many other things people could invest their time, energy, and money into.

I imagine it would also set back corporate sponsorship and added cash from businesses that might have thought about being associated with a big DGPT tournament.

well,i have to say the fact that "cash" being a consideration in any way of directing the future corrupts the spirit of the game . true, i enjoy watching Jomez and other coverage but personally could/will pull the plug when it comes to corruption and or offensive behavior becoming common or even accepted.some will call me old school but i hope the future evolves more towards the Simon or Eagle aspect of the sport. JMO

 

[nothinbuttree]

How many other sports do you watch where the players are genuinely excited when one of their direct COMPETITION has a nice shot? Smiles, fist bumps, etc. And its not for the camera, they really do (in general) pull for each other.

Anything that serves to change the current feel and comradery of the sport will quickly tune me out. I like watching good shots of course, but I also like watching the player good vibes as well.

But as someone mentioned--nothing the pros do or not will affect my personal love of playing. I would simply just stop watching. I don't care about player molds, but some do, and if they get turned off by the pro game, they will no longer be paying $30+ for all those special molds. Disc companies will make less, and those big money contracts for players go bye bye.

 

[medic5888]

LULZ!

Which run of Destroyer?




As someone who throws Destroyers, the variations are all over the place.

Same with the zeus.... I don't have 3 that are identical out of the box.

 

[rusch_bag]

Has Paul peaked yet?