What's wrong with deuce or die holes?

[Cgkdisc]

As a player & designer, here are my thoughts on how the typical player might think along their birdie spectrum on par 3s:

NB (<1 in 100) = No Birdies, too long, getting par is the challenge
RB (<1 in 20) = Rare Birdies, only with throw-ins outside C2
SB (5-15%) = Sometimes Birdies, got the distance but low accuracy for the shot shape(s) required
CB (15-33%) = Common Birdies, near the end of your distance range but doable
TB (33-60%) = Toss-up Birdie, either park the drive or make the putt about half the time
DD (>60%) = Deuce or Die, a little bit of you dies if you don't make it.

NB> Relaxed challenge unless it's known to also be a tough par for you
RB> Moderate upshot pressure so you don't have to putt
SB> Fun challenge with minimal pressure with the bonus to occasionally get drive in range
CB> You should get these so they're either fun and/or frustrating
TB> These holes are in your wheelhouse so only weather, fluky stuff, or more likely, lack of focus undermines the bird
DD> These can be boring but also critical because you know you should still get the bird even under most adverse circumstances

 

[Steve West]

...A par on them might as well be a double bogie on a par-5 in my eyes...

The math substantiates your eyes.

On a typical par 3 hole, you just need to avoid making throws that would be in your worst 9% to avoid a bogey 4.

On a typical par 2 hole, you need to avoid making throws that would be in your worst 30% to avoid a bogey 3.

On a typical par 5 hole, you need to avoid making throws that would be in your worst 27% to avoid a double-bogey 7.

So, the severity of the errors that can cause a 3 on a par 2 are about the same as those that can cause a 7 on a par 5. Both are often much less severe than the errors it would take to cause a 4 on a par 3.

 

[DavidSauls]

As a player & designer, here are my thoughts on how the typical player might think along their birdie spectrum on par 3s:

NB (<1 in 100) = No Birdies, too long, getting par is the challenge
RB (<1 in 20) = Rare Birdies, only with throw-ins outside C2
SB (5-15%) = Sometimes Birdies, got the distance but low accuracy for the shot shape(s) required
CB (15-33%) = Common Birdies, near the end of your distance range but doable
TB (33-60%) = Toss-up Birdie, either park the drive or make the putt about half the time
DD (>60%) = Deuce or Die, a little bit of you dies if you don't make it.

NB> Relaxed challenge unless it's known to also be a tough par for you
RB> Moderate upshot pressure so you don't have to putt
SB> Fun challenge with minimal pressure with the bonus to occasionally get drive in range
CB> You should get these so they're either fun and/or frustrating
TB> These holes are in your wheelhouse so only weather, fluky stuff, or more likely, lack of focus undermines the bird
DD> These can be boring but also critical because you know you should still get the bird even under most adverse circumstances

Very nice. Though I'd split the DDs into 2 categories. At 65%, it's not boring because I'm sweating not getting it, and know that's a real possibility At 95%, it's boring because I'm thinking that only a stupid flub will cost me that 2. (That stupid flub is possible too, of course, but I'm not sweating it because it's so unlikely).

The CBs are probably ideal, because they're rewarding a good shot...but it sure feels nice strutting off the green with an SB.

 

[Cgkdisc]

It's hard to find an MPO par 3 on the elite tour with birdie 2s occurring more than 80%. The "dartboard" hole #16 yielded 78% in R3 at the Music City Open under ideal conditions. I'm thinking the place you'll occasionally find birdie percentages higher than 80% will be when Gold level players play a hole that's listed as par 4 on a lower skill level design such as Waco's Blue level course. Even then, their highest birdie percentage was on the Par 4 16th at 78% in R1.

 

[DavidSauls]

It's hard to find an MPO par 3 on the elite tour with birdie 2s occurring more than 80%. The "dartboard" hole #16 yielded 78% in R3 at the Music City Open under ideal conditions. I'm thinking the place you'll occasionally find birdie percentages higher than 80% will be when Gold level players play a hole that's listed as par 4 on a lower skill level design such as Waco's Blue level course. Even then, their highest birdie percentage was on the Par 4 16th at 78% in R1.

I should hope not.

I was thinking of this thread, and those categories, being individualized for various skill levels.

We have some holes at Stoney Hill that are TBs for advanced players, but RBs for me.

By the same token, some TBs for me at Earlewood, would be in that boring 90% range for top pros.

*

This thread is titled "deuce or die", and it's probably better to think in those terms, than about birdies, or particularly about higher-par holes.