"I have to birdie this hole, because Paul will also birdie it, and he'll probably birdie 18. If I get into trouble on 18, I'll need that extra one shot cushion."
I'm sure that's what was going through JohnE's mind when he walked up to the tee on 17. You can't blame the guy for wanting to seal his victory on that hole. Watching him get that 9 was painful.
Thing is, he had a 4-throw lead on Will and five on Paul going into 17. He didn't really *need* any more birdies at all. Card two pars and it forces Will to eagle both holes just to force a tie (which would have required back to back throw-ins from 200+ feet). Even a bogey on 17 would have still left him with at least a 2-throw cushion on 18 (barring an ace from Will).
The one thing John couldn't afford to do was to go tin cup on 17. He could have laid up his first shot and played the shorter cleaner line to the green to get a par and at worst, a bogey. Even after he went OB on the first shot, laying up the next throw and pitching across to play for 5 would have allowed him to maintain some kind of lead on 18.
He played aggressively for 16 holes and it was paying off. It finally caught up to and burned him on 17. It's too bad because he had that tournament in his back pocket.