- Joined
- Dec 19, 2009
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- 6,856
Do you know from experience? I mean, if it's really 80 - 100 feet downhill, distance control should be a non issue, especially with an opportunity to practice. What makes it difficult?
I have played it, but I did not try to lay up. Even though I had no chance of throwing far enough to reach the island. I mean, c'mon, people were watching!
But my experience is irrelevant to what these competitors can or should do. If they decide to lay up, there is an IB point they should aim at to minimize their expected score. That point is toward the far end of safety. More precisely, it is the point where the risk of going OB offsets the higher scores expected from being farther from the basket. So, no matter the skill, there will be risk of going OB if playing perfect strategy.
Or, go out and mark an arc about 80 feet away down a slope with firm ground. Bet money on who can land closest to the line without going over, and you will see some throws go over the line.
What this means is that the expected score from aiming at the optimal lay-up point is not less than the expected score from aiming at the optimal point on the island. (It is nowhere near the targets.)