2024 dynamic discs open

[Steve West]

For MPO, hole #16 had the weakest correlation of scores to ratings. Only 0.1% of the total variance in scores came from the variance of the expected scores based on ratings. (Ball golf analysts call the other 99.9% "luck".)

To be fair, all holes are overwhelmingly luck-based by this measure. For comparison, the least lucky hole was #2 where 10.2% of the variance in score came from player ratings. Or, you could say hole #2 was about 100 times as effective as #16 at reflecting player ratings in the scores.

Another way to look at it would be to see how many extra ratings points it would take to expect a player to get a score which is 1 throw lower. For hole #16, that's 661 ratings points. There was only a 105-point difference between the top- and bottom-rated player. So, the expected average score for every player on hole #16 fell into a narrow slot about one-sixth of a throw wide.

The most effective hole by this measure was hole #18 where only 63 extra ratings points would be needed to expect a player to get a score one throw better. The expected average scores on this hole had a range that was 1.66 throws wide.

For FPO, hole #16 performed just fine. Only 88.7% luck and one throw saved per 135 ratings points. Both comparable to other holes.

For FPO, hole #16 had a different problem in that there weren't enough scores of 2 and 3 to legitimately call it a par 3. A 930-rated player would be expected to get a score of 4 about 66% of the time.

 

[biscoe]

How closely does the "luck" factor align with raw distance and elevation? Hole 4 is the longest Par 4 on the course and has significant elevation gain. Hole 16 is the shortest hole on the course by a fairly wide margin. My guess is the higher rated players generally throw farther than the lower rated ones. Obviously the small green on 16 randomizes things even more but simply being a hole that the entire field can easily reach could also be a factor.

 

[Steve West]

How closely does the "luck" factor align with raw distance and elevation? Hole 4 is the longest Par 4 on the course and has significant elevation gain. Hole 16 is the shortest hole on the course by a fairly wide margin. My guess is the higher rated players generally throw farther than the lower rated ones. Obviously the small green on 16 randomizes things even more but simply being a hole that the entire field can easily reach could also be a factor.

Correlation to ratings does not align well with distance, or even to high scores.

 

[njgrosser]

The new drop zone on hole 16 though ... MAJOR FAIL! I'm not sure what they were thinking, but watching dozens of 20 foot layup putts all weekend was ridiculous. That hole would be so much better if they moved the basket away from waters edge by at least a few feet.

This this this this this.

I want to know who, a couple years ago, saw Ricky's throw-in from the old drop zone, and all the emotion of his run to the basket, and said "We need LESS of that at this course..."

 

[kyflash]

This this this this this.

I want to know who, a couple years ago, saw Ricky's throw-in from the old drop zone, and all the emotion of his run to the basket, and said "We need LESS of that at this course..."

Who saw Missy fearlessly put hers in from the drop zone while others laid up and ate a bogey?
This new DZ separates the field more in terms of guts vs brains.

 

[BuiltTooLong]

Who saw Missy fearlessly put hers in from the drop zone while others laid up and ate a bogey?
This new DZ separates the field more in terms of guts vs brains.

Nobody saw that, because it didn't happen.

 

[roblee]

Opinions on Emily Weatherman's OB call on 18? Kind of looked like a "welcome to the big league" statement. Surely they knew the implications of IB.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

Sounds like I ought to watch the FPO final round on Jomez ..

 

[glassila]

Opinions on Emily Weatherman's OB call on 18? Kind of looked like a "welcome to the big league" statement. Surely they knew the implications of IB.

Man, it seems like that always gets called "good".
Anything within 1/4 inch usually gets the benefit, this was more like 1/64".

 

[BuiltTooLong]

Opinions on Emily Weatherman's OB call on 18? Kind of looked like a "welcome to the big league" statement. Surely they knew the implications of IB.

That's about as close as it gets. If it's a different player or perhaps just on a different card, she prob gets the call.

 

[glassila]

That's about as close as it gets. If it's a different player or perhaps just on a different card, she prob gets the call.

Yep. And I felt it was a pretty quick decision too.

 

[Naenae]

Sounds like I ought to watch the FPO final round on Jomez ..

Always.

 

[roblee]

king actually called a foot fault in extra holes, after throwing three or four bad shots of her own. Will we finally see more calls now?

Then HK does this on Hole 8, Finals @41:01. But she didn't touch it!

 

[biscoe]

Opinions on Emily Weatherman's OB call on 18? Kind of looked like a "welcome to the big league" statement. Surely they knew the implications of IB.

Terry (sideline reporter) walked up, took a look and said it was OB prior to the group even arriving at it. My guess based on that is that it was indeed OB and the call was made correctly. The camera angles sucked for trying to tell.

IMO the group should be applauded for actually making the difficult call instead of all the whining about how other groups would have given it to her. We need more of this rather than less.

 

[biscoe]

...and painted lines gotta go. String is the thing.

 

[glassila]

Then HK does this on Hole 8, Finals @41:01. But she didn't touch it!

King completely steps over her mini then calls a non-foot fault on Gannon later on, Nice!!!

 

[BuiltTooLong]

IMO the group should be applauded for actually making the difficult call instead of all the whining about how other groups would have given it to her. We need more of this rather than less.

The commentator's kind of stirred that pot when they speculated that a different player may have gotten the call. But they are seeing the same thing we are, so they had a poor view as well.

 

[Wayne Mags]

Was HK being petty when she called the foot fault on Gannon? I definitely think so. Also, if you are going to call that you need to do it right when it happens. Not after you have walked up the fairway. I was in a tourney once when we were walking up to 11 and one of the other guys says to me that he thinks I had a bogey on 9 and I told scorekeeper I parred the hole. I told him he should have said so then, not two holes later. I kept my par.

 

[biscoe]

The commentator's kind of stirred that pot when they speculated that a different player may have gotten the call. But they are seeing the same thing we are, so they had a poor view as well.

I agree. Disappointing work on their part imo. Erika and Madison did the same thing on the post production- Erika called it "mean." How is anyone supposed to take this "sport" seriously?

 

[biscoe]

Was HK being petty when she called the foot fault on Gannon? I definitely think so. Also, if you are going to call that you need to do it right when it happens. Not after you have walked up the fairway. I was in a tourney once when we were walking up to 11 and one of the other guys says to me that he thinks I had a bogey on 9 and I told scorekeeper I parred the hole. I told him he should have said so then, not two holes later. I kept my par.

Not the same thing imo. What did the other players in your group have to say?