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- Dec 19, 2009
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I'll try to answer this, and others can fill in/correct stuff.
The horizontal axis is the number of holes that each player has completed, like I think you were suggesting. Vertical is the total number of strokes that each player is projected to throw for the tournament, based on their current pdga rating. Wysocki, McMahon, and McBeth are listed at the top initially, because they have the best pdga ratings, so it makes sense that they are expected to throw a smaller total number of strokes.
At the end of each hole, a new computation shows how many total strokes the player is projected to throw at that point. In Eagle M's case, he was projected to throw about 176.5 strokes total before the tournament started, but after hole 1, his projected total went down a bit to around 176.2.
Without knowing Steve's formula for computing projected number of strokes, I simply look to see how much each player's total projected strokes went down or up in value after each successive hole. If their total strokes projection went up during a particular hole, then I interpret this to mean that they did not score well on that hole (or at least well against their projected total score). If their projected score changes greatly, either up or down, then I know that their performance on that hole was very good/bad.
You nailed it.
The projected throws for each hole for each player is just a linear fit of all the scores on that hole to the player ratings. These are usually not integers.
When the slope goes the wrong way (higher ratings have higher scores), the projected score for everybody is just the average score on that hole. This usually only happens in FPO because of sparse data. T