- Joined
- Aug 6, 2007
- Messages
- 4,525
we have discussed here in the past: the inherent random nature of bounces that tree trunks and branches can cause discs. For 2 discs thrown 100% identically, one of them can hit a tree and fall straight down into a nice spot in the fairway, while the other gets moved 3" to the right or left by a puff of wind and takes a kick 100' into the woods with no chance at recovery (and maybe even takes 2-3 strokes to recover).
First, it is just as random whether a disc that gets blown 3 feet and hits a tree or gets blown 3 feet and barely lands on the wrong side of a rope.
This is very wrong assertion and the error in your thinking is completely clear to anyone who has played in the woods versus in the open. Your math normally has me impressed....but I am flummoxed with your assertion here.
On top of that, I am talking about a tiny amount of variation caused by a puff of wind (3 inches) and you are talking about a significant variation of MUCH stronger gust of wind (3 feet). If that's what it takes to make your argument valid.....its not valid.
Even if your assertion that going OB as randomly due to wind effects (even when there is no wind) is correct (which it isn't), you still have not addressed the possibility of being deep in the shule producing a higher score than the simple 1-throw penalty added for OB.
Yes. There is a degree of uncertainty in where every throw will land, even on calm days. Players can take that into account when deciding whether to throw near enough danger to take a risk, or far enough away to be safe. I think most players can't help but try for that little extra edge, and take a risk to get it. So, on calm days, they'll be throwing closer to the edge (or tree or mando) than they would on gusty days, but they'll end up with about the same probability of punishment - or at least some probability.
And even if this is true (which it isn't when addressing well designed S&D holes), how can the random effect of wind (which you say is significant) and players' spray patterns on an open hole be of equal randomness to the equivalent conditions when the additional randomizer of bounces off of trees is added? Makes no sense at all.
But, this is all a sidetrack to the topic. Even if the random nature of punishment caused by trees is equivalent to S&D and OB being used, you have at least stated that random luck is not a problem for holes with well utilized S&D.