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Par Talk

Which of these best describes Hole 18 at the Utah Open?

  • A par 5 where 37% of throws are hero throws, and 21% are double heroes.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .
Nicely done. The question obviously peaked your interest.

If I followed your analysis correctly, it would be fair to say that changing PAR does not have significant impact on how pro level players perform on the hole.

What I found more interesting was that the results didn't have any directionality at all. When par is changed, maybe the scoring distribution changed a little more than would be typical for two different events, but the average score was as likely to go up (with higher par) as go down. And the average change in average score was zero.

It shows how difficult it is to lower your average score. Sure, you can trade a sure par for a risky chance at birdie, but over a number of rounds it's usually a fair trade.

This extends to trying to play above your rating, since ratings are form of average score.



(Also, par is a word, not an acronym. Capitalize appropriately.)
 
If they added another layer of those stones to increase the height of the back wall it would deflect some of those tee shots we saw skip off/just make it over and would also encourage more of a run from the DZ. This would pull the average score down to an acceptable level perhaps.

Just noticed during Mixed Doubles coverage they did exactly that. Hole 1 @ Jones Supreme now has an extra layer of lymestones along the back wall.
 
Good thing the TD sets par and not the PDGA.

While I agree with that statement, I'd like to drill down and ask: Why is Lake Marshall #18 better as a par 5 than a par 4, as well as #11 being 4 vs. 3?
 
I don't think it's possible to two #11 fwiw

It might not be possible. No one got a two, but 56% of 1000-rated players would get a three.

That makes it a hole which doesn't give players any opportunity to advance against the competition. Many feel that makes it a bad hole.

My view is that telling most players they got a "birdie" doesn't magically create a real opportunity to advance against the field. So, calling it a par 4 does not make it a better hole.

Telling everyone who got a three that they did not advance or fall back against the competition makes a lot more sense.
 
Hole 11 is currently imo neither a Par 3 nor a Par 4 for the 1000 rated gang. It is an imperfect hole for that skill level. By my metric it is closer to a par 4 than a par 3, by Steve's it is closer to a par 3 than a par 4. The hole is set to change in the near future either way.

My view is that neither calling a 3 a par nor calling it a birdie make it a better hole. Players of that level know perfectly well whether they are gaining or losing ground to the competition regardless of what the hole is called. A two on the hole is on the other hand a clear eagle imo and not simply a birdie. My general philosophy towards this type of tweener par hole is to opt for the higher- I believe it serves us better in regards to human nature and I place some (although not a ton) value on the concept of holes being birdie-able.
 
Here are a couple of graphs from some other work I was doing.

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My thought is that the MPO results can largely be explained by using Blue level courses for MPO (and not adjusting par) or using even easier courses where multiple par 3s score like par 2s.

Whereas the fit for FPO par is largely a result of using Blue-level courses - which are about right for competitive FPO players.
 

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Here are a couple of graphs from some other work I was doing.

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My thought is that the MPO results can largely be explained by using Blue level courses for MPO (and not adjusting par) or using even easier courses where multiple par 3s score like par 2s.

Whereas the fit for FPO par is largely a result of using Blue-level courses - which are about right for competitive FPO players.

Can we really conclude that this is the case? Does it take the spread of the strength of the field into account? That would tend to skew the results, I would think?

As an example, at the MVP Open, where we would expect the fields to generally be the strongest as a result of the qualification mechanisms. The spread between the top 40 MPO competitors was 18 strokes. The spread between the entire field of 40 FPO competitors who finished was 89 strokes. If we throw out #38-#40 as a ratings outlier, we still have a spread of 46 strokes.

In addition, the number of overall MPO competitors who scored above par is roughly equal to the number that score below par. The median competitor is scoring par. Par seems to reflect gaining or losing vs. the field.

No one in the FPO field scores below par. Par is required to win the tournament, not keep up with the field.

When I glance at the results of other DGPT tournaments I see similar patterns, with the hinge between above and below par for MPO being about 40 players in, fairly few FPO players scoring below par, and the spread between 1 and 40 in MPO being about 1/2 that of FPO field.
 
Can we really conclude that this is the case? Does it take the spread of the strength of the field into account? That would tend to skew the results, I would think?

...
No one in the FPO field scores below par. Par is required to win the tournament, not keep up with the field.

...

The calculations are normalized to be based on the play of a 1000-rated player for MPO, and 930-rated for FPO. So field strength is not a factor.

One other thing that happens for FPO is that, even though their hole pars usually hit the right integer, there tend to be few birdies and more bogeys. Not enough of either to change the guideline par, but each hole is tougher compared to par than you see for MPO.

For MPO (just looking at the pars that followed guidelines) most holes seems to be pushing the limit on how many birdies can be given out without forcing the par lower.

Often, that is the result of FPO playing the same hole at the same par as MPO. Other times, it is because the short tee (or target) doesn't make the hole as easy for FPO as the long tee makes it for MPO. If we started designing every hole to fit FPO skills, we would likely see FPO needing to be under par to win.

(By the way, the charts show the number of courses that had each total par, they do not show scores relative to par.)
 
Firstly I personally hate when the shorter teepads are "worse" than the pro pads. I've been in several tournaments where they shortened the distance and the angles/elevation change was not an advantage at all. If given the option I would have thrown from the "pro" pad. I feel like many times the short pads were poorly/ hastily planned out.

The large gap between pars/score in FPO and MPO is best explained by the gap in ability from the gender pool selected. There's likely 10x the men vying for 50 spots vs the women, i.e. a field of 1000 men vs 100 women to qualify. It allows people with a much broader range of ability to play FPO whereas the MPO is tougher competition.

There's just not as many female discers to pool from.
 
What is "Guideline" Par? And how is it calculated?

Oops, that explanation is in the paper these graphs are lifted from. I should have said in the post that these are based on Par by Scoring Distribution. I used that method because I have the scores and player ratings to do that.

To the broader question, par set by any method listed in the PDGA Par Guidelines counts as Guideline par. (Assuming the TD uses a particular method for all holes for practical reasons. That is, doesn't "method shop" to get biased pars.)

Par by Scoring Distribution is the most accurate method.

Close Range Par is the most successful, being the most widely used by the best-run events.
 
Code:
Hudson Mills Metropark - Monster - Short Tees																		
 		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
	 	241	200	220	250	175	170	320	210	340	290	295	265	210	650	225	350	215	290
Event Par	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3
1000 par	3-.43	2+.39	2+.24	3-.41	2+.27	2+.21	3-.38	2+.46	3-.36	2+.45	3-.43	3-.45	2+.35	4-.01	2+.17	3-.38	2+.05	3-.08
950 par 	3-.31	3-.43	3-.46	3-.29	2+.44	2+.39	3-.27	3-.41	3-.24	3-.36	3-.32	3-.35	3-.42	4+.14	2+.40	3-.26	2+.27	3+.08
930 par 	3-.22	3-.46	3-.36	3-.31	3-.45	2+.31	3-.22	3-.40	3-.20	3-.37	3-.25	3-.22	2+.35	4+.12	2+.37	3-.24	2+.37	3+.09
900 par 	3-.16	3-.37	3-.34	3-.18	3-.47	3-.43	3-.10	3-.32	3-.08	3-.26	3-.17	3-.21	3-.31	4+.36	3-.39	3-.08	3-.44	3+.29
850 par 	3-.05	3-.33	3-.18	3-.11	3-.42	3-.36	3+.22	3-.28	3+.13	3-.21	3+.01	3-.00	3-.29	5-.32	3-.34	3+.03	3-.31	3+.38
800 par 	3+.15	3-.14	3+.10	3-.01	3-.36	3-.25	4-.40	3-.16	3+.38	3+.04	3+.21	3+.16	3-.14	5-.14	3-.10	3+.31	3-.17	4-.37
700 par 	4-.36	3+.12	4-.38	4-.29	3-.11	3+.07	4-.13	3+.19	4-.20	4-.41	4-.36	4-.41	3+.35	6-.35	4-.34	4-.31	3+.24	4-.02
 
TLDR: Look up Procrustean.

I'm moving this to Par Talk to spare Denny's thread.

The lowest score that players of a specific distance/skill level can reasonably shoot should be considered "scoring", and in the case of golf, that score is called a birdie.

First, you just made that up. It has no historical support. Second, a player hasn't "scored" in any sense of the word in any game if they did not do something which gives them a leg up on the competition. So, if the lowest score possible is three, a player who got a three did not score. By your logic a three should not be called birdie.

Par in disc golf should be defined as Birdie plus one which is parallel to ball golf.
That definition equivalency does not currently exist in disc golf.
You could do that, but it is not at all parallel to golf. The REAL definition of par in golf IS parallel to disc golf.
  • USGA's definition: "Par is the score that an expert player would be expected to make for a given hole. Par means expert play under ordinary weather conditions, allowing two strokes on the putting green."
  • PDGA's definition: "Par is the score that an expert disc golfer would be expected to make on a given hole with errorless play under ordinary weather conditions."

Note there NOTHING in either one about one more than ANYTHING. Let alone one more than the score everyone gets on a hole where low scores aren't possible.

Sure, logically, you could define par as one more than birdie. So why not take it to next step? Define par as two more than eagle. Aren't there some holes where no one gets eagle? Would the lowest score anyone ever got then become "eagle"? Why not define par as albatross plus 3? Would the lowest score anyone ever got be an albatross? (Hint: the answer should be "no".)

Obviously, it is possible and logical to be able to define albatross, eagle, and birdie in relation to par, whether or not anyone has gotten an albatross, eagle, or birdie yet.



Even though they state their scoring rule in how par is set, the result of their definition is par on every hole is also birdie plus one.
Yes, birdie plus one. No, not lowest score plus one. Don't try the old subliminal switch-a-roo, Kevin Nealon.

The empirical observation that almost all holes in golf have par as one more than the lowest reasonable score, is NOT the result of their definition. It is the result of them always designing holes where it is reasonably possible to score lower than a scratch golfer.

Sure, for golf, it is much easier to design holes to create the chance of birdie. Anyone can reasonably one-putt from where two putts are expected of a scratch golfer. However, I think they probably also needed to stop using the rare holes where it simply wasn't possible to score better than a scratch golfer.

The result of the way they design holes (plus the nature of the game) means you just don't see golf holes where most players get the lowest score. If there were any holes like that, the golf definition would say most players got par, not birdie.

If the rules definition for disc golf par does not provide the ability for players of a specific distance/skill level to score/birdie on every hole, then the par definition is flawed. Simple as that.

First, it's not in the rules anymore. It's in the PDGA Par Guidelines for course designers and TDs. The rules only say: "Par is determined by the Director".

Second, for a tool to compare actual to expected, using anything else than the expected would be the flaw. For sports, science, or anything. Many aspects of life are based on comparing actual to expected.

Third, the rules don't prevent players of a specific distance/skill level to score/birdie on every hole, hole designs do that. Fix what's broken (if it's really broken, which is another debate), don't break something else.

In basketball, …

Basketball has no par. But if it did, you missed a major point, earning the chance to make a free throw or a clear shot is a big part of scoring in basketball. But, that's really too silly of an analogy to respond to.



You got nothing.

I know you plan to go on talking until you convince yourself you're right, but then you'll be wrong in two ways because your opinion of whether you are correct or not will be mistaken.

It would be better to put your energy toward taking responsibility as a leading designer to show everyone how to make holes where players can actually get a score lower than expected by a scratch player.

Inflating par is just a low-effort cop-out which damages the game. To pursue it is morally wrong and would show a lack of character.
 
Scoring and Birdie or better are the same thing in a golf scoring system. Golfers are never directly playing against other golfers except in match play. Golfers are playing against each hole design whether by themselves or with others. Designers should be able to assign the correct values for Birdie and Par on each disc golf hole simply by measuring its effective length and the distance range off the tee for the player distance/skill range the hole is being designed for. That's it. If competition scores from players of that distance/skill level must be analyzed to retroactively confirm par values, and that might result in a hole with no or few birdies, the disc golf par definition is inadequate.

Analyzing competition scores is useful to determine whether a hole is too easy, too hard, or does not provide good scoring separation, but that level of analysis should not be needed to retroactively establish par, birdie, etc. We've been going around and around on DGCR and other sites discussing the esoterica for determining par, and in the process, have missed following the lead of ball golf. Designers can directly measure the effective length of a hole from each tee and look at their published par/length range tables created for each player distance/skill level and assign proper par values that allow "scoring" with birdie or better with no analysis of competition stats needed to make that determination.
 
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