Paul McBeth #27523

[Brychanus]

Seeing as this is a PM thread we should get back on track........... pretty impressive run from the chase card yesterday, even though the OB breaks refused to go his way as they normally do. Even a spectators bag didn't kick his errant shot back in bounds.

discuss.....

It's fun to see lots of new faces competing at the top, and Paul and Ricky have both had some challenges this year. The Paul v. Ricky finishes are still great to see when they pop up. Paul's last round didn't feel like his most stellar, but that's because he's Paul and he was chasing Ricky. He still posted a 1052-rated final round.

Quick Statmando data grab from the year so far.

Head-to-head Ricky gets a slight edge.

Ricky of course has the 3 ES wins to Paul's 1.

We tend to place a lot of weight on wins, and I was slightly surprised to see that overall performance metrics put them just about as neck-and neck as always.

If you compare raw stroke differential, Paul has been 98.1% as good as Ricky.

Paul has averaged a 1046 rating, Ricky a 1047 including all events so far. The plots show their event average ratings from the beginning of the year in chronological order with trendlines.

Conclusion: they both appear to be pretty good at disc golf.

 

[ru4por]

I tried to right the ship ......



Someone please remind me how to block users

User CP (top right corner)>Settings and Options>Edit Ignore List

 

[ChrisWoj]

Just as players are supposed to call their cardmates on for excessive time, foot faults, illegal lies...

I feel compelled to call out other DGCR members for feeding the troll.


1st time you respond to him is a courtesy violation. But you get a 1 stroke penalty for every subsequent post where you engage him.

Just remember to add those strokes to your round. :|

< reaches out to Ru4 to schedule a round, so he can enforce/benefit from said penalty strokes.


< having fun wit'da troll in my own way.

You're gonna be strokin' me all night.

 

[CaptainAnhyzer]

You're gonna be strokin' me all night.

 

[ChrisWoj]

wink wink. nod nod.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

It's fun to see lots of new faces competing at the top, and Paul and Ricky have both had some challenges this year. The Paul v. Ricky finishes are still great to see when they pop up. Paul's last round didn't feel like his most stellar, but that's because he's Paul and he was chasing Ricky. He still posted a 1052-rated final round.

The depth of both the MPO and FPO fields has deepened considerably in the past few years, and I don't think it's git anything to do with Covid.

Simon's finally competing (and winning),
not just playing great. New faces like Buhr, Harris, and Robinson are joining the Kyle Kleins and AB's, not to mention Corry Ellis.

And you can never count Dickerson, Heimbrrg, Conrad, or KJUSA, out of an event.

But the Paul/Ricky battles in the late teens raised the bar. They served notice: If you even want to think about winning, here's what it's gonna take.

Missy, Val, Alexis, Oliva, Mertsch, are all answering the call. If Hailey and Heather have shown the can be dangerous (if they can bounce back). Ohn's been there all, but this year, she's on fire. And Kristin just might be the best in female player in world today.

If Evaliina and Henna can get their putting on track, they're bound to win some DGPT events as well. The fact that they finished Top 10 in several events, despite some truy atrocious putting, speaks volumes how good the rest of their games are.

Paige ain't winning by double digits no more.
But Paige, Cat and Sarah, told the FPO field, "Step your game up if you wanna beat me."

Credit to the field rising to the challenge so wonderfully.

Jeff Spring may or may not have done things right. But he's the beneficiary of all these players rising to the challenge laid down by previous Wirld's Champs. They really make the DGPT fun to watch.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

You're gonna be strokin' me all night.

Lol!

Not liking where you went with that.:\

 

[foxdawg10]

You're gonna be strokin' me all night.

You gents are going to need a private room if this keeps up.

 

[dashiellx]

Paul McBeth longest losing streaks:

-ultiworld.com

 

[VictorB]

We've seen how difficult it is to actually win on tour these days. It used to be, average 1050 and you probably can win. Now, you almost have to average 1060+ to have a chance, and even 1070+ may not (as we saw at European Open)

I'd attribute his winless streak a lot more to the field being much better in the top 15 than McBeth really losing a lot of his game. He's still 1048, which is just about 1 stroke worse than his peak rating. No one is really dominating the field and winning by multiple strokes anymore.

 

[konza_kid]

Paul McBeth longest losing streaks:

-ultiworld.com

Imagine only playing elite series, national tours and majors and not winning one of 12 events being your longest losing streak. Wild.

As I have watched Paul the last two seasons, I get the sense that he is frustrated with his disc selection. It seems as though he has so few discs he really trusts. When he was with Innova, he carried a ton of roc's and threw them all the time, he hasn't found a replacement for that yet. I don't think he threw a buzzz in the last two tournaments. He was also known for having a ton of destroyers in the bag, it seems like he has two, maybe three forces that he likes. I can't keep track of his fairways, where it was teebird3 and thunderbird it is now, anax, vulture, undertaker, reaper(?) and none of them seem to be what he is looking for.

I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to get a roc replacement made along with a new plastic blend to fill that Mc(kc)pro void for next season

 

[BogeyNoMore]

I'd attribute his winless streak a lot more to the field being much better in the top 15 than McBeth really losing a lot of his game. He's still 1048, which is just about 1 stroke worse than his peak rating. No one is really dominating the field and winning by multiple strokes anymore.

Yep. McBeth set the table. Took a while, but others are pulling up a seat as well.

 

[txmxer]

Imagine only playing elite series, national tours and majors and not winning one of 12 events being your longest losing streak. Wild.

As I have watched Paul the last two seasons, I get the sense that he is frustrated with his disc selection. It seems as though he has so few discs he really trusts. When he was with Innova, he carried a ton of roc's and threw them all the time, he hasn't found a replacement for that yet. I don't think he threw a buzzz in the last two tournaments. He was also known for having a ton of destroyers in the bag, it seems like he has two, maybe three forces that he likes. I can't keep track of his fairways, where it was teebird3 and thunderbird it is now, anax, vulture, undertaker, reaper(?) and none of them seem to be what he is looking for.

I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to get a roc replacement made along with a new plastic blend to fill that Mc(kc)pro void for next season

If he's only 1 stroke off his best, o don't see how disc selection comes into play. In that streak I think has matched the course record at multiple events. In those same events he's had less stellar rounds.

Like Ledgestone, R1, really put him in tough spot requiring a lot of risky play to be in it for R4.

Even PM can only ride the edge for so long before it catches up to him.

 

[konza_kid]

If he's only 1 stroke off his best, o don't see how disc selection comes into play. In that streak I think has matched the course record at multiple events. In those same events he's had less stellar rounds.

Like Ledgestone, R1, really put him in tough spot requiring a lot of risky play to be in it for R4.

Even PM can only ride the edge for so long before it catches up to him.

I was talking in general, Paul is obviously great enough to overcome some gaps in his bag, but I have to wonder what his results would look like if he had the exact disc he wanted for the shot vs. making what he has work.

 

[ChrisWoj]

We've seen how difficult it is to actually win on tour these days. It used to be, average 1050 and you probably can win. Now, you almost have to average 1060+ to have a chance, and even 1070+ may not (as we saw at European Open)

I'd attribute his winless streak a lot more to the field being much better in the top 15 than McBeth really losing a lot of his game. He's still 1048, which is just about 1 stroke worse than his peak rating. No one is really dominating the field and winning by multiple strokes anymore.

I think I'd attribute the winless streak to his being one shot worse per about 18 holes. The fact that its so much harder for him to win any one tournament is more down to the entire field being better. I don't think the field has improved so much that it is the bigger reason he's had this streak. The last time this happened, you could see it in the ratings in 2018. When he's less than peak McBeth a losing streak can happen.

If he returns to 1060Paul level I don't think he goes 0 for 12 over 12 events even against the current fields. Maybe in 5-10 years, considering some of the kids coming up behind/with Gannon.

 

[Ryan P.]

As I have watched Paul the last two seasons, I get the sense that he is frustrated with his disc selection. It seems as though he has so few discs he really trusts. When he was with Innova, he carried a ton of roc's and threw them all the time, he hasn't found a replacement for that yet. I don't think he threw a buzzz in the last two tournaments. He was also known for having a ton of destroyers in the bag, it seems like he has two, maybe three forces that he likes. I can't keep track of his fairways, where it was teebird3 and thunderbird it is now, anax, vulture, undertaker, reaper(?) and none of them seem to be what he is looking for.

I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to get a roc replacement made along with a new plastic blend to fill that Mc(kc)pro void for next season

Ledgestone round 3 discs off the tee, in order (according to JomezPro)
Undertaker (reddish pink)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Force (ugly yellow/green)
Force (white and blue)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Undertaker (reddish pink)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Force (ugly yellow/green)
Undertaker (TI Black)
Force (ugly yellow/green)
Anax (ESP Purple)
Athena (ESP White)
Anax (ESP Purple)
Wasp (pink CT)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Anax (ESP Purple)

So you're right; no Buzzz there. But I don't think your theory has merit unless you're the first psychologist in history to psycho-analyze someone from a distance. Also, he sure seems to like throwing Lunas off the tee, and they fly about as far for him as his Rocs did.

If anything, he's talked like he enjoys the variety of Discraft molds.

 

[konza_kid]

Ledgestone round 3 discs off the tee, in order (according to JomezPro)
Undertaker (reddish pink)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Force (ugly yellow/green)
Force (white and blue)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Undertaker (reddish pink)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Force (ugly yellow/green)
Undertaker (TI Black)
Force (ugly yellow/green)
Anax (ESP Purple)
Athena (ESP White)
Anax (ESP Purple)
Wasp (pink CT)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Luna (Clear Crystal)
Anax (ESP Purple)

So you're right; no Buzzz there. But I don't think your theory has merit unless you're the first psychologist in history to psycho-analyze someone from a distance. Also, he sure seems to like throwing Lunas off the tee, and they fly about as far for him as his Rocs did.

If anything, he's talked like he enjoys the variety of Discraft molds.

I'm obviously not a psychologist, but don't they learn how to psychoanalyze people from books, video, and lecture? Some might call that a distance. Also, I'm not claiming to diagnose him with anything clinical either, just have enough empathy to understand what frustration looks like. Then taking the giant leap of associating that frustration and quotes like "why are you flipping now?" in reference to an unexpected result, to demonstrate he might be frustrated with some of his equipment.

Just also have to touch on how your initial argument was based on me not being qualified or within an acceptable observational range to determine his feelings on his equipment and you then follow that with "he sure seems to like throwing Luna's off the tee"
*chef's kiss*

 

[VictorB]

If he returns to 1060Paul level I don't think he goes 0 for 12 over 12 events even against the current fields. .

so what you're saying is, that if he becomes the highest rated player of all time again, that he probably will win one? let's not get too hot with the takes today!

 

[BogeyNoMore]

So Discraft sux?

 

[ChrisWoj]

so what you're saying is, that if he becomes the highest rated player of all time again, that he probably will win one? let's not get too hot with the takes today!

Hey now, I'm the one putting the kibosh on the hot take that this streak is more a product of the field getting better than Paul not playing like peak-Paul! lol