[PDGA Major] Champions Cup 2024

[Steve West]

The 1050-foot hole #12 is a par 5 because that's what the TD set.

It has usually scored like a par 6 according to the methods Par by Average Score (of the 1000-rated expert), and Par by Scoring Distribution.

However, it is not clear why it should be scoring as a par 6. It would seem a smart player could be expected to do something like make three 300-foot placement shots and then lay up from 150 feet for the drop-in par.

Perhaps players have been overreaching to try to get a 4 and getting burned. If so, then over time they should be figuring out to not do that.

And it seems they are figuring it out.

At the 2023 Greater Peoria Open (which presumably had more local players who knew better) the scores supported par 5 under both methods mentioned above. (Barely.) 1000-rated players averaged 6.12 which is below the 6.19 maximum for par 5, and 29% of 1000-rated players got a 5, which is above the 26% minimum for par 5.

And there were no 4s at all.

However, at the 2023 DGPT - Discraft Ledgestone Open it seems the big egos came to town and played for the 1% chance of getting a 4 and mostly lost the bet. The prototypical 1000-rated player ended up averaging 6.59 and getting a 5 (or 4) only 20% of the time.

So, if I were in charge, I would call it an unbirdieable par 5 that the players aren't playing in an errorless manner.

 

[elmexdela]

The 1050-foot hole #12 is a par 5 because that's what the TD set.

It has usually scored like a par 6 according to the methods Par by Average Score (of the 1000-rated expert), and Par by Scoring Distribution.

However, it is not clear why it should be scoring as a par 6. It would seem a smart player could be expected to do something like make three 300-foot placement shots and then lay up from 150 feet for the drop-in par.

Perhaps players have been overreaching to try to get a 4 and getting burned. If so, then over time they should be figuring out to not do that.

And it seems they are figuring it out.

At the 2023 Greater Peoria Open (which presumably had more local players who knew better) the scores supported par 5 under both methods mentioned above. (Barely.) 1000-rated players averaged 6.12 which is below the 6.19 maximum for par 5, and 29% of 1000-rated players got a 5, which is above the 26% minimum for par 5.

And there were no 4s at all.

However, at the 2023 DGPT - Discraft Ledgestone Open it seems the big egos came to town and played for the 1% chance of getting a 4 and mostly lost the bet. The prototypical 1000-rated player ended up averaging 6.59 and getting a 5 (or 4) only 20% of the time.

So, if I were in charge, I would call it an unbirdieable par 5 that the players aren't playing in an errorless manner.

thank you for the thoughtful response

as a rec division player and a pro level chit talker i believe i took a 6 on that hole the only time i played it

there is a pure clean line the whole way

1 flick 2 bottom of hill 3 top of hill 4 upshot 5 putt

rec players are able to par that hole given they have some accuracy

pros are taking tons of bogeys+ cuz they get greedy/want to gain strokes as 4 def is possible its just super difficult

on a similar note brp hole 4 is pretty easy to dissect if you go putter x3

anyways for the "random" crowd you should probably keep away from nwb and stay at your local soccer fields

 

[Countchunkula]

I took an 8 from the short tee the only time I played NW Black 12. Didn't have to be though. My drive was fine and got me to flat ground at the bottom of the hill. Instead of throwing a putter or flippy mid that would get me past the top of the hill and stay in the fairway, I got greedy. Threw a flippy driver that kicked into the small tree jail and it went downhill from there.

If I would have gone with the safe play, I could have strung together putter shots down the tunnel for a likely 5. And I'm not very good.

I think this is one of the rare holes in dg that really punishes aggressive play without resorting to ob (natural or otherwise). Many of us aren't used to that and don't adjust.

 

[Flick Maniac]

Looks like rain for sure on Friday and Saturday has a good chance.

Better shoot good on Thursday and Sunday.

Better yet, shoot extra good on Fri & Sat while others are bogeying due to poor weather.

 

[wolfey]

I don't see Simon on the list of registered players. Any news of him sitting this one out?

 

[@CD-]

The 1050-foot hole #12 is a par 5 because that's what the TD set.

It has usually scored like a par 6 according to the methods Par by Average Score (of the 1000-rated expert), and Par by Scoring Distribution.

However, it is not clear why it should be scoring as a par 6. It would seem a smart player could be expected to do something like make three 300-foot placement shots and then lay up from 150 feet for the drop-in par.

Perhaps players have been overreaching to try to get a 4 and getting burned. If so, then over time they should be figuring out to not do that.

And it seems they are figuring it out.

At the 2023 Greater Peoria Open (which presumably had more local players who knew better) the scores supported par 5 under both methods mentioned above. (Barely.) 1000-rated players averaged 6.12 which is below the 6.19 maximum for par 5, and 29% of 1000-rated players got a 5, which is above the 26% minimum for par 5.

And there were no 4s at all.

However, at the 2023 DGPT - Discraft Ledgestone Open it seems the big egos came to town and played for the 1% chance of getting a 4 and mostly lost the bet. The prototypical 1000-rated player ended up averaging 6.59 and getting a 5 (or 4) only 20% of the time.

So, if I were in charge, I would call it an unbirdieable par 5 that the players aren't playing in an errorless manner.

Not sure the landing zones support 3x 300 ft shots based on some rough Google Maps measurements below. Likely too short for the first landing zone to even get a second shot off w/ any consistency. Landing in the ravine or on the hillside makes for a challenging scramble as does any little kick on the final 200ft gauntlet at the top of the hill. I think 'overreaching' may be better characterized on this hole as taking required risk off the tee when you have the best footing/traction to push up the fairway and meet the first landing zone.

using some Google map distance measurements I went backward from the basket -
C1 shortest edge to top of hill landing zone is ~175ft. (gauntlet ~15ft wide/15ft tall + thin trees on both sides)
Top of hill LZ to flat LZ across bridge/ravine ~225ft. (overhanging branches near the hill players throw upwards to)
Flat LZ past bridge to tee shot LZ ~ 225ft. (tee shot LZ is skippy/easy to get a little off center even when landing flat, LZ is slight downslope by the looks of it, trees on either size of LZ)

Tee shot is navigating a few gaps and still throwing approximately 380-400ft. Kick off any of the trees during the tee shot could kick to bogeyville and require a couple pitch outs to the tee shot's ideal LZ.

Playing Northwood in the spring before the full summer foliage is present may make some of the rough a little more manageable. Its tough to say the players will have decent/consistent footing throughout the course as some spring rain/thunderstorms are coming through during this event.

 

[lee76007]

I don't see Simon on the list of registered players. Any news of him sitting this one out?

His wife is supposed to be delivering soon. He doesn't plan on returning until the Portland Open.

 

[@CD-]

I don't see Simon on the list of registered players. Any news of him sitting this one out?

His wife is scheduled to give birth tomorrow (4/25). He will be off tour for a couple months to spend time raising his newborn.

 

[Steve West]

Nice analysis. Perhaps the error is trying to combine those two 225 foot throws.

 

[@CD-]

Nice analysis. Perhaps the error is trying to combine those two 225 foot throws.

how many 1000 rated players need to score par (or better) through all 4 rounds of Champions Cup to indicate that 'error free' x 4 can be done?

maybe some analysis of different MPO ratings ranges will be possible with Champions Cup's 4 rounds of data ie. 1000-1015, 1016-1030, 1031+ rated. Hard to say if we will get full stat keeping for all rounds out there on every card which may throw the C1R/C2R stats off.

 

[Brychanus]

Not sure the landing zones support 3x 300 ft shots based on some rough Google Maps measurements below. Likely too short for the first landing zone to even get a second shot off w/ any consistency. Landing in the ravine or on the hillside makes for a challenging scramble as does any little kick on the final 200ft gauntlet at the top of the hill. I think 'overreaching' may be better characterized on this hole as taking required risk off the tee when you have the best footing/traction to push up the fairway and meet the first landing zone.

using some Google map distance measurements I went backward from the basket -
C1 shortest edge to top of hill landing zone is ~175ft. (gauntlet ~15ft wide/15ft tall + thin trees on both sides)
Top of hill LZ to flat LZ across bridge/ravine ~225ft. (overhanging branches near the hill players throw upwards to)
Flat LZ past bridge to tee shot LZ ~ 225ft. (tee shot LZ is skippy/easy to get a little off center even when landing flat, LZ is slight downslope by the looks of it, trees on either size of LZ)

Tee shot is navigating a few gaps and still throwing approximately 380-400ft. Kick off any of the trees during the tee shot could kick to bogeyville and require a couple pitch outs to the tee shot's ideal LZ.

Playing Northwood in the spring before the full summer foliage is present may make some of the rough a little more manageable. Its tough to say the players will have decent/consistent footing throughout the course as some spring rain/thunderstorms are coming through during this event.

There's a snaking ~800' heavily wooded hole near me where the long tee isn't as long or brutal as NWB hole 12 (It doesn't have the 380-400 ft play off the tee), but it's got a similar risk-reward profile.

Every time I play the hole I can see lines that gambit for 300', but even a minor error or kick is worth at least 2 strokes. If you are off the landing zone on the first shot it is almost impossible to make par without top-tier finesse skills.

Over time I've had to learn to just calm the F down and treat it like a few 225 ft putter holes strung together. The "reward" is if I play the first couple ones well I can go a bit more aggressive, but it still is generally putting me ahead just playing for par.

Northwood black 12 looks like this hole on steroids with more overall distance, placement demands on the first shot at longer distance, elevation changes, and a murder ravine, so I hope to get to play it someday and get smacked lmao.

The enjoyable Matty O on this hole last year:

 

[Steve West]

how many 1000 rated players need to score par (or better) through all 4 rounds of Champions Cup to indicate that 'error free' x 4 can be done?

maybe some analysis of different MPO ratings ranges will be possible with Champions Cup's 4 rounds of data ie. 1000-1015, 1016-1030, 1031+ rated. Hard to say if we will get full stat keeping for all rounds out there on every card which may throw the C1R/C2R stats off.

One, for can be done.

But, the criteria for par is that a score can be expected with errorless play.

For par 4, the PDGA Guidelines say if 1000-rated players are getting 35% or more 4s or better, then that's really good evidence that a score of 4 can be expected with errorless play - par 4 is indicated.

You asked for a number, though. Because this field is so strong, I expect only 22 player-round-equivalents of 1000-rated data. So, eight scores of 4 from the lower part of the field.

For par 5, the guidelines say 26%. Or, just six scores of 5 (or 4) from the lower part of the field.

From the 2023 Ledgestone data, hole #12 would be par 5 for ratings of 1012 and up. Remind me to look at the results after the Cup.

 

[Flick Maniac]

Assigning par based on rating smells suspiciously like the Performance Flight of USDGC... Ugh

 

[DG Fanatic]

GOOD LUCK!

 

[ru4por]

GOOD LUCK!

View attachment 338685

Shrug.......midwest spring golf.

 

[@CD-]

That forecast seems very similar to what the FPO field experienced in Austin at USWDGC with first/third round being opportunities to score and 2nd/final rounds just trying to hold onto the strokes they gained.

Hole 18 hopefully gets a bit more challenging with the less than ideal weather the next rounds. R1 the top 25 FPO made it look trivial to birdie with 6 of 25 taking the par (5) and no over par strokes taken. 5 Eagles from that group with a few more from down further in the standings.

 

[ChrisWoj]

With new wormhole disc-tech, you too can ace anything!

 

[ChrisWoj]

Right now the ratings are showing about 4.5 rating points per stroke. Teensy.

 

[glassila]

With new wView attachment 338697ormhole disc-tech, you too can ace anything!

Any idea what was going on here?

DGPT has it's own thing which I think they call "Event Scoring" which is very similar to PDGA Live Scoring.
I like that both DGPT and PDGA scoring give an exact distance for putts. (birdie from 7', par from 25', etc) I'm guessing the person scoring makes an estimate. UDisc only had a few distance options.

 

[ChrisWoj]

Any idea what was going on here?

DGPT has it's own thing which I think they call "Event Scoring" which is very similar to PDGA Live Scoring.
I like that both DGPT and PDGA scoring give an exact distance for putts. (birdie from 7', par from 25', etc) I'm guessing the person scoring makes an estimate. UDisc only had a few distance options.

Everyone on the card was listed as a 1 before they finished the hole. It looked like someone scoring clicked in the first shot for everyone and then accidentally clicked on to the next hole.