What a great event and what a pleasure it was watching the FPO and MPO!
This isn't even hindsight because I thought this when it was happening live...Eagle going for eagle on #18 was not his best chance to win the event. I think by FAR Eagle's best chance was - he birdies, McBeth pars and then go to a playoff. An Eagle birdie and a McBeth par on #18 would not have been some wild, unlikely occurrence. Eagle getting an eagle on #18 was MUCH more unlikely.
In the live coverage, Terry and Robert said nothing on commentary and I looked through this forum and found no mention of this. Maybe there were some comments posted on the live coverage or maybe I am just missing something here. Eagle made the best "try to win it on the last hole" choice but not the best "try to win the event" choice.
I agree with you... I think Eagle had already made his mind up before the hole started because he was losing to both Mcbeth and Wysocki... Thinking it was unlikely that both of them were going to get par or worse. He should have changed his mind as soon as Ricky threw it in the water.